Oil and Natural Gas Analysis: Prices Hold Key Support as Traders Weigh Russia-Ukraine Risks

Oil prices rebounded from long-term support levels as geopolitical tensions intensified. The lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks raised concerns that sanctions on Moscow would remain in place for an extended period. These sanctions could restrict Russian oil supply, tightening the global market. The announcement of a smaller-than-expected output hike from OPEC+ added further support. As a result, both Brent crude oil and WTI oil reached their highest levels in over a week.

Moreover, Russia’s energy sector remains under pressure from ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks. These strikes have disrupted key oil refineries and reduced production efficiency. Despite this, Russia is nearing its OPEC+ quota. A peace deal would likely boost Russian exports, but that hope is fading. Traders now factor in longer supply constraints from one of the world’s top producers.

On the other hand, U.S. crude oil stocks increased by 3.7 million barrels, more than expected. However, prices remain above the long-term support of $60. This indicates that the market is more concerned about supply than weak demand or storage issues.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

WTI Oil Daily Chart – Consolidation

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows a rebound from long-term support at the $60 level, with prices moving toward the $64 area. This $64 region serves as key resistance, aligning with the 50-day SMA and the upper boundary of the ascending channel pattern.

A breakout above $64 could push prices higher toward the $67 zone, while a break below $60 may trigger further downside toward $55.50. Overall, oil prices remain uncertain and continue to consolidate within the tight $60–$70 range, awaiting a decisive move.

WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Negative Price Action

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows a rebound from the critical support zone between $60 and $61. This critical support zone is highlighted in red. Strong resistance remains at the $65.50 level. However, a breakout above this level could push the trend toward the $70 area. On the other hand, a break below $60 would be needed to trigger further downside in oil prices.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Resistance at 200-Day SMA

The daily chart for natural gas shows a rebound from the long-term support zone between $2.50 and $2.60, forming a short-term double bottom pattern. However, the price has reached the 200-day SMA at the $3.50 level and has started to correct.

The immediate support lies near the $3.16 area, where a rebound is possible. Currently, the price is caught between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, awaiting a clear directional breakout. The RSI is pulling back from the overbought region, and a move toward the 50 level may signal the next bullish leg for natural gas.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Rebound

The 4-hour chart for natural gas indicates that the price is consolidating below the key resistance level. It has reached strong resistance in the $3.50 to $3.60 area and has started to correct lower toward $3.18.

As long as the price holds above $3.18, the immediate trend remains upward. However, a break above the black dotted trendline at $3.60 is required to sustain the bullish momentum in natural gas.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily Chart – Break from Bear Flag

The daily chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows that the index is rebounding after forming a double bottom pattern near the 96.50 level. A break above the 98.60–98.80 area would sustain the bullish momentum toward the 100.50 level.

However, the 100.50 to 101 zone remains a strong resistance and may cap further upside, potentially maintaining the broader bearish trend in the U.S. Dollar Index. Overall, the index is currently trading between the 96.50 and 100.50 levels, awaiting a decisive breakout for its next direction.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Negative Price Action

The 4-hour chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows that the index has rebounded from the long-term support at 96.50 following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. The price is currently consolidating within a tight range and awaiting its next move. Immediate resistance is seen at the 99.20 and 100.50 levels, and a breakout above this zone is required to establish a clear directional trend.