Oil and Natural Gas Analysis: WTI Struggles Below $66, Natural Gas Remains Bullish Above $3

WTI crude oil (CL) prices rose to $62.15 in early Asian trading on Thursday due to supply concerns. The increase followed OPEC+’s decision to keep output levels unchanged, signaling a controlled supply environment. The market also reacted to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming July OPEC+ meeting, which may introduce new output decisions. Additionally, the API report added further bullish sentiment by showing a significant drop of 4.236 million barrels in US crude inventories for the week ending May 23.

The above chart shows that the weekly drop in oil inventories is very different from last week’s increase of 2.499 million barrels. Despite this decline, total inventories have increased by over 21 million barrels this year. This reflects mixed signals but supports short-term price strength.

However, a stronger US dollar—driven by hopes of improved trade deals and GDP growth—could limit oil gains, as it makes USD-priced commodities more expensive. Markets now await the EIA report and the second estimate of Q1 GDP for further direction.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

WTI Oil Daily Chart – Positive Development below $66

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price is forming a strong bottom after consolidating below a long-term pivotal level. However, this bottom will only be confirmed if the price breaks above the $66 range. Despite the strong consolidation, the price remains below the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating a continuing negative trend. A break above the $72 level would confirm the bottom and signal further upside potential.

WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Descending Broadening Wedge

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price is consolidating within a descending broadening wedge pattern. This consolidation is taking place within the $60–$64 range, where the price is forming a bullish structure. However, this setup will only be confirmed if the price breaks above the $70 level.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart –  Rebound from Key Level of $3

The daily chart for natural gas (NG) shows that the price is consolidating above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs and has rebounded strongly from the $3 level. This strong rebound highlights the importance of the $3 support zone and suggests a move toward higher levels. Moreover, the RSI is above the 50 level, indicating continued upside momentum.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Constructive Rebound

The four-hour chart for natural gas shows that the price is consolidating between the $3.00 and $4.70 levels. The rebound from the $3.00 area failed near $3.80, indicating strong consolidation. However, the price is likely to continue toward the $4.70 level.

US Dollar (DXY) Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily Chart – Consolidation

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows that the index is consolidating within the highlighted orange zone and has failed to break below the 98 level. The rebound from the 98 area has reached resistance at 100.65, reinforcing the consolidation range.

Despite this rebound, the index remains below the 50-day SMA, indicating a continued negative trend. Only a break above 103.50 would signal further upside potential.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows that the index is trading within a descending channel. The rebound from the 98 area has reached the channel’s resistance at 100.50. A break above this level would target the 102 zone, and a further break above 103 would indicate continued upside toward 103.50.