Oil and Natural Gas Technical Analysis As Markets Eye Peace Talks and Fed Shift

Oil prices are consolidating below key resistance and remain weak. The market is closely watching peace talks on the Ukraine conflict, which could quickly shift supply expectations. Any sign of stalled negotiations may push prices higher, while progress could lower them as supply risks ease.

Moreover, the fresh production from Iraq is also weighing on the market. The return of output from Lukoil’s West Qurna 2 field increases supply, adding pressure to both Brent crude oil (BCO) and WTI crude oil (CL). At the same time, discussions by the G7 and EU about more onerous restrictions on Russian oil create uncertainty, which can limit downside moves.

Meanwhile, the interest rate expectations add another layer to price action. The markets anticipate a U.S. rate cut, which could weaken the dollar and support crude oil prices. However, the oversupply may cap gains in 2026. If OPEC+ cuts output and U.S. shale slows, oil may recover later, but the near-term outlook remains pressured.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

WTI Oil Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price is consolidating below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, signalling potential for further downside. The sustained consolidation beneath the 50-day SMA suggests continued bearish momentum in the coming days.

The chart also highlights a long-term support zone between the $55 and $60 levels, where the price is currently compressing. A break below $55 would likely trigger strong selling pressure. On the other hand, a breakout above $65 could drive prices toward the $70 region.

WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation with Negative Bias

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price is consolidating below the $62 level. A clear downtrend has been in place since September 2025, with each rally forming a lower high before the price resumes its decline.

As a result, $62 remains the immediate resistance level, and the price is likely to trend lower in the coming days.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Bullish Momentum

The daily chart for natural gas (NG) shows that the price broke above the $4.70 level and continued to rise, reaching a peak of around $5.50. After marking this high, the price retraced lower toward the support zone between $4.50 and $4.70.

The emergence of a cup‑and‑handle pattern, followed by a strong bottom formation in the $2.50–$2.60 range, indicates that the broader trend remains upward. However, a break below $4.50 would likely push prices toward the $4.00 region.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Positive Trend

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows that the price formed a strong bottom at the $2.60 level and broke higher, reaching $4.70. A double bottom pattern just below $4.70 indicates short-term bullish momentum.

Immediate support is now seen at $4.70, while a break below $4.50 could trigger further downside. However, any correction is likely to find strong support, potentially setting the stage for the next move higher.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily Chart – Consolidation

The daily chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows that it formed a double top pattern near the 100.50 level and continues to trend lower. The index is consolidating both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs below, indicating ongoing bearish pressure.

However, the 50-day SMA is now intersecting with the 200-day SMA, adding to market uncertainty. A break below the 98.00 level could push the index further down toward 96.50. If 96.50 fails to hold, the downtrend in the U.S. Dollar Index is likely to continue.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Negative Price Action

The 4-hour chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows that the index consolidated around the red-dotted trendline after forming a double top near the 100.50 level. A break below 98.00 could push the index lower toward 96.50. Furthermore, a break below 96.50 would confirm the next leg down.

Currently, the index is consolidating within the 96.50–100.50 range. A breakout in either direction will determine the next significant move in the U.S. Dollar Index.