Oil and Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Holiday Liquidity and Geopolitical Risks Lift Energy Prices

WTI crude oil (CL) rebounded from long-term support near $55 during the final week of 2025. Prices climbed to $58.46 as geopolitical tensions disrupted the typically quiet holiday period. Traders responded swiftly to new risks and overlooked early 2026 oversupply forecasts.

The U.S. crackdown on Venezuelan crude shipments triggered the rally. Moreover, Washington seized multiple tankers, escalating pressure on Maduro’s regime. This enforcement raised concerns about shipping disruptions, despite Venezuela supplying only a small share of the global oil market.

On the other hand, thin holiday liquidity amplified these moves. As many traders exited the market ahead of year-end, price swings became more pronounced. Headlines surrounding Venezuela and Russia carried extra weight, pushing oil prices higher despite bearish underlying fundamentals.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price rebounded from strong support near the $55 level and reached the 50-day SMA. As long as the price remains below the $60 area, the overall price action stays bearish.

A break above $64 would likely trigger strong upside momentum toward the $70 level. Meanwhile, the RSI has rebounded from the 30 level, indicating consolidation within a tight range. At this stage, the moving average remains positioned near the upper end of the range.

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price remains below the $59.50 resistance level, despite a strong rebound from the $55 support zone. This resistance is reinforced by a descending red trendline, suggesting that a breakout above $59.50 is needed to gain further upside momentum.

Additionally, the chart has formed a descending broadening wedge pattern, which may indicate a potential reversal. A confirmed breakout above the $60 level could initiate a positive move toward the $63–$65 area.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The daily chart for natural gas (NG) shows a bullish price structure forming above the $2.60 support level. The recent correction from the $5.50 high found strong support at $3.80, triggering a sharp rebound. The overall trend remains bullish as long as the price holds above the 200-day SMA at $3.60. A breakout above $5.50 would signal further upside potential in natural gas prices.

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows a strong bullish structure forming above the $2.60 support level. However, the price is currently consolidating below the $4.70 resistance, signaling uncertainty. A breakout above $4.70 is needed to trigger further upside momentum.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis

The daily chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows strong bearish pressure, as the price failed to break above the 100.50 level. Moreover, the 50-day and 200-day SMAs are aligning, signaling a bearish crossover.

The index is now moving toward the 96.50 level, and a break below 97.50 will confirm continued downside momentum. A decisive break below 96.50 would signal strong bearish pressure and potentially trigger a move toward the 90 level.

The 4-hour chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows the formation of a double top pattern at the 100.50 level. A break below the 99.00 level has triggered a strong decline in the index. A further break below 97.50 would signal additional downside toward the 96.50 level.