Oil, Natural Gas, and US Dollar Analysis Amid Trade Talks and Geopolitical Risks

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as traders awaited the outcome of US-China trade talks. Brent crude oil (BCO) climbed to $67 per barrel, while WTI oil (CL) rose to $65.40. WTI crude reached its highest level since April 4, and Brent hit its strongest level since April 28, driven by hopes of a trade resolution.

The ongoing trade talks in London entered their second day, with top US and Chinese officials aiming to ease tensions. President Trump expressed optimism, stating he had received “only good reports.” A successful deal could boost global growth and increase demand for energy, including oil. As fuel consumption is closely tied to economic activity, markets remain sensitive to any trade-related developments.

However, geopolitical risks are creating market uncertainty. Iran plans to submit a counter-proposal on its nuclear program, pushing back against a US offer. If sanctions are eased, Iran could increase oil exports, putting downward pressure on prices. As OPEC’s third-largest producer, Iran’s return to global markets would significantly alter the supply landscape.

Meanwhile, OPEC oil output increased in May, though the gains were modest. Iraq reduced production to offset earlier excesses, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE made only small increases. However, OPEC+ is beginning to unwind earlier cuts.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

WTI Oil Daily Chart – Double Bottom

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price has formed a double bottom around the $55 area and has initiated a rebound toward the key level of $66. A break above $68, the 200-day SMA, would signal a strong move toward the $74 area. However, a break below $60 would keep the price in a downward trend.

WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Descending Broadening Wedge

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price is forming a bottom around the $60–$61 area within a descending broadening wedge pattern. The resistance of this wedge lies near the $70 level, and a breakout above $70 could trigger a move toward $73. The RSI has reached the overbought region, suggesting a correction may occur before the next move higher.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Key Level of $3

The daily chart for natural gas (NG) shows that the price is consolidating in a tight range above the $3 support area. This consolidation, following the formation of a cup and handle pattern, indicates a strong bullish trend. A break above the $3.80 area would likely initiate a strong upward move.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Constructive Rebound

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows strong price consolidation between the $3.00 and $4.70 levels. The price is forming bullish price action above the $3.00 area, and a break above $3.80 could trigger a move toward $4.70. A breakout above $4.70 would likely initiate a strong upward move.

US Dollar Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily Chart – Consolidation at Support

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows a strong bearish head and shoulders pattern, with the price reaching key support around the 98 level. The index is rebounding from this support toward the 100.50 level. A break above 100.50 is needed for further upside. As long as the index remains below the 50-day SMA, bearish pressure is likely to continue.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows that it is trading within a descending channel, with strong resistance at the 100.50 level. A break above 100.50 could trigger a strong upward move. However, failure to break above this level may lead to another decline toward the 96 area.