Oil, Natural Gas, and US Dollar Technical Analysis: Price Rebounds Face Resistance Levels

WTI crude oil (CL) prices rose above $63 per barrel, while Brent crude oil (BCO) climbed above $65 per barrel at the start of the trading week. The 90-day tariff truce agreement between the US and China drove the rally. This temporary trade truce reduced geopolitical risk and improved global market sentiment. The deal eased fears of an economic slowdown and boosted expectations for oil demand.

China stands to benefit from improved trade terms. This tariff deal supports industrial output, logistics, and fuel-intensive sectors. These industries are critical to global oil consumption and have contributed to higher prices. The trade truce has also reinforced risk appetite across commodities and equities.

However, the agreement remains temporary, and traders are now shifting their focus to US macroeconomic data. The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be critical for the short-term direction of oil prices. Strong CPI numbers could strengthen the US dollar and pressure oil prices by reducing demand. Conversely, weaker inflation data may boost risk sentiment and support oil prices. Traders are also awaiting the weekly US inventory reports from API and EIA. A sharp stockpile draw may indicate tightening supply and push prices higher. However, a surprise inventory build could suggest oversupply and limit recent gains.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

WTI Oil Daily Chart – Price Rebound

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that prices increased following the US-China talks in Geneva and reached strong resistance at $63.50. This resistance is confirmed by the 50-day SMA. Moreover,  the lower boundary of the orange zone in the chart also confirms the strong resistance. This orange zone highlights a strong pivotal area, and as long as the price remains below it, WTI remains under bearish pressure. Additionally, the RSI has also reached the mid-level as the price touched the 50-day SMA.

WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Price Rebound

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price remains within the descending broadening wedge pattern and has rebounded from strong support within this structure. The RSI reached the 70 level as the price approached the black dotted line following the rebound. The emergence of the broadening wedge pattern indicates strong volatility, and the price remains bearish as long as it stays below $70.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – 50-Day Moving Average

The daily chart for natural gas (NG) shows that the price is trading within an ascending channel after breaking out from a cup and handle pattern. The recent rebound from $3 was driven by strong bullish momentum, supported by the emergence of a solid bullish price structure. This rebound suggests that prices are likely to continue moving higher. The price is currently testing resistance at $3.80 near the 50-day SMA, and this level is expected to break to the upside.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Constructive Rebound

The 4-hour chart for natural gas also shows bullish price action following the rebound from $3. The emergence of an inverted head and shoulders pattern indicates that the next move is likely to be higher. A break above $3.80 would signal a potential rally toward the $4.70 level.

US Dollar (DXY) Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily Chart – 50-Day Moving Average

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows that the price continues to rebound from long-term support at 98 and is approaching strong resistance at 102 near the 50-day SMA. The RSI has also moved above the mid-level, indicating positive momentum. A break above the 102 level could push the index toward 103.50. However, a break below 100.65 would signal further downside toward the 96 level.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows that the index is approaching resistance at 101.60, the upper boundary of the descending channel. As the index tests this resistance, the RSI has reached extremely overbought levels. As a result, the index may consolidate or pull back from this level to stabilize from the overbought conditions.