Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Steady at 200-Day Average, OPEC+ Move Looms

Oil Prices Steady Near 200-Day Average as Traders Eye OPEC+ and Saudi OSPs

Light crude oil futures continue to consolidate near the 200-day moving average at $65.18, with traders awaiting clear catalysts to drive the market out of its recent range. A sustained move above $65.18 could signal renewed buying, targeting resistance at $67.44 and potentially $71.20 if momentum builds. Conversely, a move below this level risks a pullback toward the 50-day moving average near $62.20.

At 10:15 GMT, Light crude oil futures are trading $65.02, down $0.09 or -0.14%.

Will the OPEC+ Output Hike Cap Gains in Oil Prices?

Oil prices held steady on Tuesday as markets anticipate OPEC+ to announce a 411,000 barrels per day production hike for August during its July 6 meeting. If approved, this would bring the group’s total 2025 increase to 1.78 million bpd, equivalent to over 1.5% of global demand, keeping the market well supplied despite recent geopolitical tensions.

Saxo Bank noted that while potential trade deals could improve demand sentiment, the “accelerated rate of output increases” from OPEC+ remains a core concern for bullish traders. Rising supply could act as a ceiling near $67.44 unless stronger demand signals emerge.

Saudi Arabia’s Expected August OSP Hike Could Support Prices

Traders are closely watching Saudi Aramco’s August official selling prices (OSPs) for Asian buyers, expected to rise by 50-80 cents per barrel to a four-month high on robust summer demand and recent spot market strength. Arab Light may increase to $1.70–$2 above Oman/Dubai benchmarks, setting a price tone for nearly 9 million bpd of Middle Eastern crude bound for Asia.

Refiners in Asia have already requested additional term supplies for August and September, citing stronger summer fuel demand. However, rising OPEC+ supplies could counteract these gains, keeping oil within its consolidation band unless demand materially strengthens.

Geopolitical Tensions Ease but Trade Risks Remain

While the Israel-Iran ceasefire helped pull Brent down from highs above $80 to $67, traders remain alert as the July 9 U.S. tariff deadline approaches, with potential higher tariffs risking demand growth. Morgan Stanley expects Brent to retrace toward $60 by early next year as geopolitical risks abate and oversupply concerns persist.

Crude Oil Outlook: Cautiously Bullish If Catalysts Align

Crude oil prices remain in a tight consolidation, with near-term direction hinging on OPEC+ output decisions, Saudi OSPs, and the demand impact from trade policies. A clear breakout above $67.44 could open upside toward $71.20, but rising supply and tariff risks may cap gains, keeping the market in a cautious but constructive holding pattern.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.