Oil News: 200-Day Moving Average Caps Crude as Traders Eye Geopolitical Risks

Oil Prices Edge Higher as Market Eyes Geopolitical Risks and Key Technical Barriers

Light crude futures are up a hair in early Monday trade, but let’s not pretend there’s heavy conviction behind the move—volume’s thin, and traders are still trying to digest headlines from the Trump-Putin summit and the latest round of jawboning from Washington.

At 11:05 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $62.19, up $0.21 or +0.34%.

The market caught a slight bid after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro took a swing at India for buying Russian crude, arguing those flows are effectively financing Moscow’s war effort. That’s rekindled some of the old supply fear trade, and it’s probably what’s supporting crude here.

Navarro’s quote—calling India a “global clearinghouse” for Russian oil—was sharp enough to stir up fresh concern that energy markets are still very much at the mercy of political brinksmanship.

Trump’s Position on Ukraine Puts Pressure on Sentiment

The market’s also got an eye on today’s meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, which could mark a turning point in peace efforts—or not. Trump has doubled down on a peace-first strategy that leans toward concessions to Moscow, including giving up on Crimea and NATO aspirations. If that view gains traction, traders may start pricing in a more stable Europe, and that could cap oil’s upside. But we’re not there yet.

Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank put it well: the market hasn’t priced in a full “peace dividend.” So while that risk is lurking, prices remain vulnerable to geopolitical twists—especially since speculators are now holding a rare net short position in WTI, per latest CFTC data. That’s notable. If we get a headline that catches the market off guard, the squeeze potential is real.

Key Resistance Levels Limit Any Upside Follow-Through

Now, from a technical standpoint—this is still a bearish chart. The market is trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the swing chart trend is down. That’s not something you want to fade without a strong reason.

The 200-day moving average at $63.25 is the first real ceiling. Even if we poke above it, there’s more resistance stacked at the 50% retracement level at $64.56 and the 50-day at $65.00. Bulls have their work cut out for them.

Support-wise, $61.12 is the level to watch. A break below there could open the door for a sharp move down toward $56.09. That’s your real risk zone if sellers regain control.

Jackson Hole Summit Looms But Trend Remains Lower

Looking ahead, traders are also watching Jackson Hole later this week, where Powell’s comments might offer clues on rate cut timing. That could affect the dollar and broader risk appetite—but it’s not enough to change the trend in oil just yet.

Outlook: Bearish – The market remains in a downtrend, stuck below key moving averages with no confirmed breakout. Buyers need to reclaim the 200-day at minimum before any shift to a bullish bias. Until then, this is still a sell-the-rally market, with downside risk building under $61.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.