Oil prices eased in early Asian trading on Tuesday. Brent oil slipped to $107.80 a barrel while WTI oil dropped near $93 as traders weighed the prospect of more Russian diesel.
The Deputy Prime Minister of Russia said that the exports of diesel could reach 3 million to 3.5 million metric tons a month by the end of the year. His comments put Trump’s diesel deal back in focus. The availability of more fuel could ease shortages and reduce some pressure on oil prices. But buyers still need evidence that Russia can deliver the extra supply.
The latest warning from OPEC and its allies also keeps the cost of shipping in focus. Ministers said that the cost of freight and insurance now exceeds one-third of the value of energy cargoes. These costs hamper the movement of crude oil and fuel and add pressure to an already strained market.
The market remains concerned about the shipping near the Strait of Hormuz after recent tanker attacks. In my view, the additional diesel from Russia could limit gains but safer shipping routes would provide greater relief. The disruptions in the Gulf could push Brent and WTI higher despite the prospect of more fuel.
WTI Oil Price Forecast: $104 in View Above $87 Support
The monthly chart for WTI oil shows that the price hit a high of $106.75 in September 2026 and triggered a strong correction. The price failed to break above $106 and consolidated below this level. A confirmed break above this level will likely open the way for a strong rally towards the $130 area. However, a break below $80 will likely indicate further downside to $70.
The WTI oil also shows constructive price action in the short term after the breakout from the triangle pattern in August 2026. After producing a high in September, the market formed a bottom above the 50-day SMA, continued to rally and closed around the $93 area.
This constructive price action in the short term suggests another rally towards the $104 area. But a break below $87 will likely push prices towards the 200-day SMA near $83. The RSI remains above the midline, which suggests positive momentum in the WTI market.
Brent Oil Price Forecast
Every new Brent Oil analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Brent Oil forecastsBrent Crude Oil Price Forecast: $113 Resistance and $120 Target
The daily chart for Brent crude oil also shows constructive price action above the 50- and 200-day SMAs. The price formed a bullish hammer candle on 6 October 2026 at the 50-day SMA and triggered a rally.
The constructive price action in October suggests a rally towards the $113 area in the short term. However, a break above $113 will likely push Brent oil prices back towards the $120 region. The RSI remains above the midline and suggests further upside in the short term.
The weekly chart for Brent oil also shows constructive price action above the $100 region. The price has produced two consecutive bullish weekly candles above $100 and looks set to rally towards the $120 area. The RSI also remains above the midline, which further supports the bullish outlook in the Brent crude oil market.
What to Watch Next
The market will watch whether Russia delivers more diesel and whether the risk of shipping near the Strait of Hormuz eases. The extra fuel could ease shortages, but further disruptions to tankers could keep oil prices high. WTI oil could test $104 if it stays above $87. But a break below $87 could bring $83 into focus. Brent oil could rise towards $113. A break above this level could open the way towards $120. In my view, the momentum supports further gains, but extra supply and safe routes for shipping could limit the rally in oil prices.
