Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Stalls Below $68K as ETF Rally Fades Before FOMC
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Key Points:
- Bitcoin remains capped near $65,000 to $68,000, where the short-term holder cost basis creates overhead supply and limits the current recovery.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a $225 million outflow on July 23 after a seven-session, $999 million inflow streak, leaving 2026 flows roughly $4.5 billion in the red.
- BTC could consolidate between $62,000 and $68,000 into the July 28–29 FOMC decision; a Fed hold and sustained inflows may target $72,000 to $75,000, while a hawkish surprise risks $58,000 to $62,000.
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Bitcoin clawed back more than 13% off its July 1 low, then stalled right under $68,000. The ETF rally everyone pointed to was never strong enough to break that ceiling, and on July 23 the streak that powered it broke. Below is the flow math, the on chain cost basis, and the derivatives read behind my base case, which has Bitcoin chopping into the Fed meeting instead of breaking out.