Copper Price Forecast: US Tariff Premium Signals $6.70 Next
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Key Points:
- COMEX copper settled at $6.376/lb on July 29, 2026, up 3.3% in July and 43.6% year to date despite the missed June 30 tariff-decision deadline.
- The COMEX-LME premium stood at 19.2 cents/lb, about 8.4 times its 2005-2025 average, signaling that US buyers still price in future refined-copper tariffs.
- The base case targets $6.65-$6.80 by Q4 2026; an explicit tariff rejection or a close below $5.85 alongside a spread below 8 cents would invalidate the outlook.
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Copper’s Tariff Premium Defies the Missed June Deadline
This outlet’s own June 29 call looked for compression toward $5.50 if Washington failed to confirm a refined copper tariff by June 30. Washington failed. Copper went up instead. The reason nobody prints sits in the COMEX – LME spread. US buyers and warehouses are still paying for a tariff that was deferred and never cancelled, and that payment is the trade.