Copper, Uranium and Lithium Forecast: Will the Sell-Off Deepen?

homehomehoCopper (XCU) dropped on Thursday as uncertainty over U.S. tariffs added to selling pressure. Uranium and lithium also weakened ahead of the U.S. inflation report. A strong inflation reading could increase the expectation for a Fed rate hike. The higher borrowing costs could then slow construction and manufacturing and weigh on copper and lithium demand. In my view, these demand drivers remain encouraging but the correction could deepen if key support levels fail. This article presents the key drivers and technical levels that may shape the next move in copper, uranium and lithium prices.

Copper Faces Tariff Uncertainty as Uranium Demand Gains Support

Uncertainty about U.S. import tariffs puts new pressure on copper. The White House has not yet set the tariff on refined copper due to concerns about manufacturing costs. The availability of the metal has been limited as buyers brought it into U.S. warehouses in anticipation of potential tariffs. A delay could weaken that stockpiling demand and reduce the premium linked to tariffs. But the unresolved policy can make traders hesitant to make those inventories public. The next White House decision is a big price catalyst.

A new nuclear power contract helped to brighten the long-term demand prospects for uranium. Google signed a deal on 9 September to purchase electricity from the Loviisa power plant owned by Fortum in Finland. The arrangement will provide half the capacity of the plant during 2030-2049 and will help fund investments to extend the life of the plant.

This will maintain demand for uranium for decades of reactor operations. The supply side is progressing as well. Orano CEO said on Sept. 10 that its Mongolian venture is expected to yield several million pounds by the end of decade. This could help to eliminate the future supply pressure, but construction progress will determine when the material reaches buyers.

Battery Demand and New Supply Shape the Lithium Outlook

Lithium is competing with battery demand and the supply from future mines. The Chinese battery makers focus on homes, data centers and power grids as domestic electric vehicle demand remains sluggish. This change could expand the demand for lithium but stiff competition from batteries is putting pressure on manufacturers.

The chart below shows that the broader new energy vehicle sales in China reached 1.643 million units in August. This provides support for battery demand despite the weakness in parts of domestic market.

Atlas Lithium announced on 9 September that it contracted 71% of the direct capital budget for Brazil’s Neves project. The contract costs were 16% below estimates. This enhances the odds of more supply. The extent of its market impact will be dependent on construction and the production start.

U.S. CPI Could Shift Fed Rate Hike Expectations

The next big catalyst is the U.S. inflation report to be released on Friday, 11 September. The markets are pricing in approximately a 72% chance of a rate hike in September ahead of the release and the US dollar is trading below the key resistance of 100. Higher inflation might drive up borrowing costs and put more strain on copper and lithium.

The high cost of credit can delay construction projects and EV purchases, and decrease the demand for these two metals. However, there is a demand cycle for uranium as reactors need fuel during their operating lives. In my view, credit is a more immediate demand risk for copper and lithium.

Copper Price Forecast: $6.50 Support Faces Selling Pressure

Copper prices dropped sharply on Thursday and closed at $6.53. If copper continues to trade below $6.50 on Friday, it will likely open the way for a strong drop towards the $6 region. The RSI has also moved below the midline, which increases bearish pressure in the short term. This negative momentum follows the formation of rising wedge pattern. Therefore, if the price breaks below $6.50 this time, it may trigger a quick drop in copper prices.

Copper’s Long-Term Uptrend Faces $7 Resistance

The quarterly chart below also shows the importance of current resistance. The chart shows that prices broke above the $6 level in Q2 2026. But the price remains elevated and faces strong resistance at $7. This resistance is defined by the ascending channel pattern. Prices have shown heavy volatility around this level. Therefore, $6 remains strong key support in the short term.

A break below $6 may push copper prices further down towards the $5 area. The emergence of ascending channel patterns since the lows of 2002 indicates strong bullish momentum in the copper market in the long term. The ongoing AI demand and spending may keep the copper market elevated in the long term. Therefore, this short-term correction in the copper market may be treated as a strong pivot for long-term investors.

Sprott Copper Miners ETF Faces a Test of $40 Support

The Sprott Copper Miners ETF also shows broad consolidation between $31 and $47. The price has been consolidating between $45 and $47 during the past few days but failed to break above $47. This failure triggered a correction in copper miners and prices continued to drop. The immediate support for the Sprott Copper Miners ETF is the $40 area. A break below this level may indicate further downside toward the $35 region.

Uranium ETF Forecast: Key Support Levels to Watch

Uranium prices also faced strong pressure. The chart below shows that the Global X Uranium ETF continues to consolidate between $50 and $43. But the latest drop on Thursday has pushed the ETF lower. The Global X Uranium ETF has strong support around $39. A break below this level may trigger further downside. On the other hand, a break above $52 may open the way for further upside towards the $60 area.

The Sprott Uranium Miners ETF also faces strong resistance within the triangle pattern and prices are now dropping. The immediate support remains the $49 area. A break below this level may trigger a strong drop in the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF towards the $43 region. But a break above the $58-$59 area will likely push ETF prices toward $70.

The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust also remained above the ascending trend line that stretches from the July 2025 lows. Prices are now dropping back towards the support of this ascending trend line at the $26 area. A break below $26 may push Sprott Physical Uranium Trust back toward $22. But a break above $29 will open the way for higher prices towards the $32 region.

The weakness in the uranium equity basket is observed on the chart below. The chart shows that the uranium equity basket has faced strong resistance at the 6,600 level within the descending channel pattern. The index is now dropping and has strong immediate support at 5,700. A break below 5,700 may open the way for further downside toward the lower end of the channel at 4,700. But a break above the 6,500-6,600 area will break the channel and open the way for strong rally toward the 7,700 level.

Lithium ETF Forecast: Miners Approach Long-Term Support

The lithium market also faces pressure at the resistance area. The Sprott Lithium Miners ETF continues to drop back towards the $9 support area. The price is now back below the $11 support level and continues to drop further.

The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF also faces pressure in the short term. The important support level remains at $67. A break below $67 will open the door for further downside. But a break above $78 will likely push the ETF back towards the $88 region.

The iShares Lithium Miners and Producers ETF also faces pressure towards the $12.50 support level. A break below $12.50 will open the way for further downside towards the $8.60 level. On the other hand, a break above $16 will likely open the way for further upside towards the $20 area.

The weakness in the lithium market can be observed on the weekly chart of Sprott Lithium Miners ETF. The chart shows that prices have been dropping over the past few weeks and have now dropped back below the $11 area. This suggests that a break below the $10 level will likely push prices back towards the $9 level. This is strong long term support for the Sprott Lithium Miners ETF. As long as this support holds, the possibility of strong rally in the Sprott Lithium Miners ETF is high.

What to Watch Next for Copper, Uranium and Lithium

Copper, uranium and lithium face pressure in the short term as markets weigh policy uncertainty against the future demand. U.S. tariffs remain unresolved and leave copper exposed to sudden price swings. Nuclear power agreements support the long term demand for uranium. On the other hand, lithium needs stronger battery demand to absorb new supply. A hot U.S. inflation reading could raise expectations for higher interest rates. Higher borrowing costs could delay construction projects and EV purchases which add pressure to copper and lithium.

A break below $6.50 in copper could drop the price to $6. The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust has important support at $26 and the Sprott Lithium Miners ETF has strong support at $9. A break below these levels would increase the risk of further losses. In my view, AI investment, nuclear power and battery storage still support the demand outlook for these metals in the long term. But the prices need to stabilize before the case for sustained recovery becomes stronger.

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