Crude Oil Price Analysis: Why the Strait of Hormuz Closure May Not Lift Brent Yet

Key Points:

• Strait of Hormuz disruptions may not sustain a Brent rally while strategic stock releases, South Atlantic supply and alternative export routes cushion the shock.
• China’s refinery utilization and crude-import recovery could matter more than the blockade, while damaged Russian refineries add crude supply but tighten product markets.
• ICE positioning remains heavily short among money managers and other reportables, leaving Brent vulnerable to a squeeze if physical tightness or war risk intensifies.