Gold Price Analysis: $4,280 Target In View as the Crowded Long Unwinds Into the Fed
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Key Points:
- The CFTC's 25 August report has non-commercials long 277,159 against short 33,825, a net 243,334 on open interest of 427,957. That is 56.9% of the whole market, held one way.
- I ranked that against 400 weekly reports back to 2018. Only three of the 400 have ever sat at or above it, and the all time record is 0.81 points away.
- Warsh told Jackson Hole that PCE runs 3.7% on twelve months and 4.1% on six. A Fed hiking into that is the one thing this position is not built for.
Through August, gold climbed and so did the crowd behind it, week after week, until specs owned more of COMEX than they have in almost any week of the last eight years. That reading is dated the day the rally stopped. I think the unwind isn’t finished, and I’m putting my level at $4,280 into the September meeting.