Oil Price Forecast: Brent Holds Above $100 as Saudi Supply Risks Grow
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Key Points:
- Brent surged 8.84% last week to $104.32. Attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and weaker Yanbu loadings are narrowing the Kingdom’s remaining bypass capacity around the Strait of Hormuz.
- China faces a tightening crude-supply squeeze. Reduced access to Saudi and Iraqi grades is pushing buyers toward Oman and ESPO barrels while increasing pressure on strategic reserves.
- Positioning is reinforcing the bullish oil move. Money managers are net long 411,159 contracts across four crude markets, up 6.7% on the week, while producer and merchant short covering remains elevated.
In this report: Petroline exposure, China’s crude cutoff, IEA stock mechanics, COT positioning, and this week’s trade falsifiers