Anticipation high for silver’s next move post-Powell speech.
Upcoming economic reports including labor market data, crucial for silver’s trajectory.
Silver market’s volatility expected with new data releases.
Last Week’s Silver Rally
Last week marked a notable surge in silver (XAG/USD) prices, reaching the highest level since the week-ending July 21.
This rally was primarily ignited by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, which boosted trader confidence that the U.S. central bank might pause its monetary policy tightening.
Spot silver prices reflected this optimism, closing the week 4.50% higher. This upward trend was also supported by a corresponding rise in gold prices, further fueling the bullish sentiment in precious metals.
Daily Silver (XAG/USD)
Powell’s Influence on Market Sentiment
Powell’s speech at Spelman College was a key driver behind this sentiment shift. His statement about the risks of under- and over-tightening becoming more balanced led silver bulls to anticipate potential rate cuts.
However, it’s important to note that Powell also cautioned against premature speculation on easing rates, a nuance that the market seemed to overlook in favor of a more bullish interpretation.
Treasury Yields and Monetary Policy Outlook
The response in Treasury yields to Powell’s speech was significant, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.213% and the 2-year yield decreasing to 4.553%.
Powell’s commitment to keeping policy restrictive until inflation is under control, and his openness to further tightening if necessary, initially seemed to contradict the market’s bullish outlook. Yet, traders are increasingly betting on the Fed pausing rate hikes, as evidenced by the decline in yields.
Economic Data and Market Reaction
The inflation data released last week, specifically the October personal consumption expenditures price index, showed a slowdown in the core PCE index year-on-year increase. This data aligns with the Fed’s current stance and has influenced market expectations, contributing to last week’s silver price rally.
This Week’s Outlook for Silver
Looking ahead to this week, the outlook for silver remains cautiously bullish. The market is currently pricing in a high likelihood of unchanged interest rates in the Fed’s December meeting. However, traders will be closely watching for key economic reports, including November’s jobs report and the consumer price index, which could influence the Fed’s decision-making and thus impact silver prices.
Moreover, global economic indicators, particularly the state of the manufacturing sector in the U.S. and inflation trends in the Eurozone, will play a crucial role in shaping this week’s market sentiment. Currency movements, especially the dollar’s performance against major counterparts, will also be a critical factor.
In summary, while last week’s rally in silver prices was driven by a confluence of Powell’s remarks and favorable economic data, this week’s outlook hinges on upcoming economic reports and continued monitoring of the Fed’s policy stance. The market is poised for a bullish trend, but with a watchful eye on any new data that might sway investor sentiment.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.