Silver (XAG) Forecast: 50-Day Moving Average in Focus as Silver Outlook Softens

Silver Hovering at Key Pivot as Traders Weigh Value Buying vs. Breakout Play

Silver is coiled near a critical decision point, hugging the 50% retracement and technical pivot at $37.87. The market is offering traders a clear setup: buy the dip into value near the 50-day moving average, or wait for confirmation through resistance to buy strength. With Fed rate expectations shifting and gold unable to lead higher, silver’s next move could set the tone heading into Jackson Hole.

At 13:14 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $37.83, down $0.19 or -0.50%.

$37.87 Marks the Battleground — Buy the Dip or Wait for Confirmation?

The $37.87 level is acting as a short-term neutral zone — not bearish, not bullish, just balanced. From here, traders have two distinct options. One, fade into support at the 50-day moving average at $37.30, a level that has attracted dip buyers in previous sessions. Two, wait for a decisive close above resistance at $38.74 to signal that bulls are in control.

Failure to hold $37.30 could trigger a sharper sell-off, with the next major support zone between $36.21 and $35.28. But until either side breaks, silver is essentially rangebound with directional risk tied closely to external catalysts.

Gold Stuck Below Resistance as Hot US PPI Data Caps Upside

Gold remains a drag on the precious metals complex. Despite a softer dollar, it hasn’t managed to break above its 50-day moving average at $3349.20 or pivot resistance at $3353.58. Thursday’s hotter-than-expected PPI — up 0.9% in July, the biggest monthly gain in three years — has reset Fed rate expectations.

The probability of a 50-basis-point cut is off the table. Traders now expect just a 25-bp move in September, with strong jobless claims further limiting the Fed’s flexibility. For gold, and by extension silver, this caps enthusiasm for fresh longs.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Adds Event Risk

The scheduled Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska adds a geopolitical wildcard. While major policy changes are unlikely, any dollar-impacting headlines — particularly around Ukraine — could spill over into precious metals. Traders will also look to Jackson Hole next week for clarity on the Fed’s rate path.

Market Forecast: Neutral to Bearish Bias Below $38.74

As long as silver holds below $38.74, the short-term tone leans neutral-to-bearish. Traders are balancing value buying opportunities at $37.30 against breakout potential above resistance. If $37.30 breaks, momentum could quickly accelerate toward the $36.21–$35.28 zone. Gold’s stalled technical picture and reduced Fed easing odds reinforce caution. Bulls need a strong catalyst — or a clean technical breakout — to regain control.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.