Oil News: Crude Oil Rebounds off Key Support but Bearish Oil Outlook Persists

Light Crude Holds Support, Finishes Week Lower

Light crude oil futures settled slightly higher on Friday, ending at $57.15 per barrel, up $0.16 or +0.28%. The modest rebound came after prices tested support near $56.15 — just above the longer-term low at $55.27 — prompting short-covering ahead of the weekend. Despite the intraday recovery, futures still finished the week lower by $1.28, or -2.19%.

Friday’s session saw the formation of a closing price reversal bottom, a potentially bullish technical pattern. If Monday’s follow-through is supported by strong volume, traders could see a 2–3 day rally toward initial resistance near $59.30, with an extended target at $61.05.

However, the broader trend remains under pressure with key resistance levels clustered around the 50-day moving average at $61.83 and the 200-day at $62.39. Notably, the 50-day average has crossed below the 200-day — a bearish “death cross” that continues to weigh on market sentiment.

Geopolitical Risk Premium Eases on Ukraine and Gaza Developments

Traders responded to a series of geopolitical developments that collectively reduced risk premium in the market. U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed to meet again within two weeks to discuss the Ukraine conflict, while a cease-fire in Gaza added to the de-escalation tone.

Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn noted that “an unprecedented amount of risk has come out of the market,” citing reduced tensions in the Middle East and the Ukraine war front.

Refinery Fire Drives Regional Gasoline Spike

Meanwhile, a fire at BP’s Whiting refinery in Indiana is expected to impact regional gasoline prices, particularly in the Midwest and Great Lakes markets. GasBuddy’s Patrick DeHaan indicated that wholesale gasoline prices in the area could rise by as much as 20 cents per gallon, though the national crude market is unlikely to see a material impact from the incident.

Inventory Build and Record Output Add Downward Pressure

Crude prices were also pressured by bearish fundamental data. The International Energy Agency warned of a growing supply glut projected to materialize by 2026, dampening longer-term sentiment.

Closer to the short term, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 3.5 million barrel increase in crude inventories last week — significantly above the 288,000-barrel build expected by analysts. The inventory rise was largely attributed to seasonal refinery maintenance reducing throughput.

Additionally, U.S. crude production climbed to a record 13.636 million barrels per day, adding further supply-side pressure.

Market Forecast: Bearish Short-Term Outlook Unless Reversal Holds

While technical signals suggest a short-term bounce is possible, broader fundamentals — including record-high U.S. output, a larger-than-expected inventory build, and persistent macroeconomic concerns — continue to cap bullish momentum. Unless the price reversal pattern is confirmed early next week with sustained buying, the near-term outlook for crude oil remains bearish.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.