Solana Price Forecast: Exhaustion Candles Anticipate 10% Drop for SOL

Solana (SOL) has accumulated a 2.5% price increase in the past 7 days, but the token seems lined up to experience a strong decline as bulls continue to struggle to push it past key resistances.

This week’s positive inflation report in the United States did little to change the trajectory of crypto prices, as sentiment remains heavily depressed in the absence of strong catalysts.

Thus far, SOL has shed 40% of its value in 2026, and may book another 10% drop if bearish momentum accelerates in the following days.

Forward Industries Buys More SOL for the First Time in Months

Earlier this week, the largest Solana treasury company, Forward Industries, disclosed that they bought an extra 254,000 SOL at an average price of $75, resulting in a $19 million investment.

This is the first time that this digital asset treasury (DAT) has acquired the token in months, as they took a major loss shortly after their initial purchase. Back on September 15, Forward Industries bought 6.82 million SOL tokens at $232.

Nearly a year later, they are sitting on paper losses exceeding $1 billion as they purchased the assets quite close to their cycle peak.

Solana Application Fees and DEX Volumes Drop to September 2024 Lows

Weak interest in SOL lately, has been the primary reason why this altcoin has performed so poorly. Trading volumes remain quite thin, accounting for less than 2% of the asset’s circulating market cap multiple times.

Moreover, activity within Solana’s ecosystem has stalled lately according to on-chain data. As per DeFi Llama, in August, DEX volumes dipped to their lowest levels since September 2024 at $50 billion.

Similarly, application fees have been closing the last few months near or below the $200 million mark — also a heavily depressed figure compared to the $400 million these protocols collected in January this year, for example.

That said, network usage has been strong recently, potentially aided by micropayments and stablecoin transfers — a segment that is expected to keep growing in the future.

Transaction volumes handled by the Solana blockchain rose to a new all-time high in July at 2.75 billion, translating into a 5% jump compared to the previous month.

Finally, interest in SOL on Wall Street has been quite weak in the past few months, as net inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that offer exposure to this token ended at $14 million last month and are expected to close at $23 million in August.

This is nothing compared to the $115 million investors poured into SOL ETFs in May or the $411 million these vehicles attracted in November 2025.

Solana Could Drop by 10% If Bearish Momentum Accelerates

Heading to the daily chart, we can see some exhaustion candles lately that indicate persistent selling at $77.

This type of candle pattern typically precedes the beginning of a downtrend. If that’s the case, we could see SOL dipping to the $68 area shortly, meaning a 10% downside risk.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still standing near the 50 threshold. However, if it drops below 40, that would send a powerful sell signal that could mark the beginning of this decline. If that $67 support is lost, the next stop would be Solana’s current cycle low at around $60.