S&P500 Forecast: Target Tanks 10% Pre-Market, Lowe’s Powers Retail Recovery Hopes

Lowe’s Pops in Pre-Market While Target Slides on Weak Traffic, CEO Transition

Retail earnings are setting a split tone ahead of Wednesday’s open, with Lowe’s rising in pre-market trade following a strong earnings report and strategic expansion news, while Target shares sink nearly 10% as investors react to a decline in store traffic and a pending CEO transition. Traders are weighing which name offers a stronger forward setup as both retailers beat earnings estimates but diverge on momentum and clarity of strategy.

Will Lowe’s Pro-Focused Strategy Fuel Further Upside?

Lowe’s stock is up pre-market, trading near $264.67—a level that suggests continued strength following Tuesday’s earnings beat. The company posted Q2 earnings of $4.33 per share on $23.96 billion in revenue, and raised its full-year sales outlook to as high as $85.5 billion. More importantly, Lowe’s doubled down on its professional contractor customer base with the $8.8 billion acquisition of Foundation Building Materials.

Technically, the stock is showing strength. It recently cleared both its 50-day ($228.00) and 200-day ($240.27) moving averages, and is now trending above key resistance zones. A breakout above $260 appears to be gaining traction, with pre-market action suggesting traders may target the $270 area if buying holds after the bell.

Is Target’s CEO Announcement Overshadowing Its Earnings Beat?

Target reported better-than-expected Q2 earnings of $2.05 per share on revenue of $25.21 billion, but pre-market action tells a different story. Shares are trading sharply lower around $94.22, as investors digest a 1.9% drop in comparable sales and another quarter of declining traffic. The company also announced that Michael Fiddelke will replace Brian Cornell as CEO in February.

Despite digital and advertising growth, weak in-store trends and the upcoming loss of the Ulta Beauty partnership are adding pressure. On the chart, Target is hovering just above its 50-day moving average ($102.00) but remains well below its 200-day ($115.26). With this pre-market move, the stock risks a breakdown below recent support near $95.

Pre-Market Sentiment Favors Lowe’s Setup Over Target’s Rebuild

Traders appear to be favoring Lowe’s clearer earnings story and forward-looking strategy. A strong move above $260 puts prior highs in play, especially if the Pro business continues to gain share. Target, on the other hand, needs more than cost cuts and leadership change to reverse declining shopper engagement.

As the market opens, watch for volume confirmation on Lowe’s breakout and whether Target can hold the $94–$95 zone. These early moves could define retail sentiment heading into next week’s macro data and further earnings.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.