Technical Outlook: EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, AUD/JPY and AUD/CAD

EUR/AUD

Profit-booking recovery from 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement of April – August rally by the EURAUD seems finding it difficult to break the four month old descending trend-line resistance, connecting highs marked from August top, which in-turn favors fresh downside attempt by the pair towards testing 1.4850 (200-day SMA); however, a closing break below 1.5100 becomes necessary to confirm the near-term south-run. Should the pair dips below 1.4850, the 61.8% Fibo, near 1.4800 round figure mark, and the 1.4650, are likely consecutive supports that the pair might test prior to re-visiting the early month lows around 1.4350. Meanwhile, successful encounter of the mentioned trend-line resistance, near 1.5300, isn’t expected to trigger the pair’s rally as 100-day SMA, near 1.5385-90, the 38.2% Fibo, near 1.5480, and the 1.5580 – 1.5600 horizontal resistance-zone may limit the pair’s further upside. Given the pair’s ability to surpass 1.5600, it could quickly rally to 1.5785 – 1.5800 resistance-region before targeting the 23.6% Fibo, near 1.5900 mark.

GBP/AUD

Following its reversal from four-month old descending trend-channel resistance, the GBPAUD seems all set to extend its immediate downside to 2.0600 mark, including 200-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its March – August up-move; though, 2.0800 can act as an intermediate support level. Given the pair’s inability to hold 2.0600, the pair can accelerate the southward trajectory towards aiming the 2.0200 – 2.0180 support-area, including the mentioned channel’s support & 61.8% Fibo, with 2.0400 being a rest point during the decline. However, a closing break above 38.2% Fibo, around 2.1030, can favor the pair’s re-test to channel resistance, presently at 2.1200, breaking which 100-day SMA, near 2.1330, can hold the gate for the pair’s extended rise towards 2.1540-50 resistance-zone, including 23.6% Fibo.

AUD/JPY

Even if the 200-day SMA, coupled with three month old ascending trend-line resistance, triggered the AUDJPY decline towards testing the lowest levels in a month, the channel support, presently around 86.60, seems helping the pair’s pullback to 88.50-60, breaking which 89.15 and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – August downside, near 89.65, are likely following resistances during the pair’s extended up-move to re-test 200-day SMA, near 90.50. However, pair’s further advance beyond 90.50 are likely to be restricted by the 91.00 – 91.10 area, including the mentioned channel resistance. On the downside, a daily close below 86.60 can quickly fetch the pair to 23.6% Fibo level, near 85.60. Should the pair maintains the south-run intact following 85.60 break, it could aim for 83.00 and the August lows of 82.00 mark, with 84.70 being an intermediate support level.

AUD/CAD

Short-term ascending trend-channel helped AUDCAD clear the long-standing downward slanting trend-line from April 2013; though, resistance-line of the mentioned channel, presently at 1.0025-30, triggered the pair’s pullback to 0.9840. From the current levels, the pair is expected to test 0.9935-40 and the 0.9975-80 immediate resistances before it could aim for the channel resistance test. Should the pair manage to clear 1.0030, the 1.0045-50 can provide another obstacle for the pair’s rise towards surpass 1.0100 mark. Alternatively, a break of channel support, near 0.9850, quickly followed by the mentioned trend-line resistance-turned-support, near 0.9830, could trigger the pair’s fresh downside towards 0.9750-40, 0.9660-70, 0.9580 and the 0.9500 round figure mark consecutive support levels.

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