The Day Ahead: Markets Brace for Nvidia Earnings and Fed Minutes Today

Futures Flat as Market Awaits High-Stakes Earnings and Fed Clarity

U.S. equity futures are treading water early Wednesday as traders await major earnings and Fed commentary. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow futures are all marginally lower, down 0.07%, 0.03%, and 0.07% respectively.

This comes after a strong rebound in the prior session: the Dow surged over 700 points (1.8%), the S&P 500 climbed 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite led with a 2.5% gain. Optimism followed President Trump’s delay of a proposed 50% EU tariff to July 9, reducing near-term trade anxiety.

Fed Minutes in Focus: Will Policymakers Tip Their Hand on Rate Cuts?

Markets will closely scrutinize the FOMC minutes from the May Fed meeting, due at 18:00 GMT. While the Fed held rates steady at the meeting, investors are seeking more clarity on future rate cuts amid macro uncertainty and evolving tariff policy. FedWatch pricing suggests a nearly even split on a potential September rate cut, making today’s release potentially market-moving.

Earnings Spotlight: Nvidia and Salesforce Take Center Stage

Before the Open:

• Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS): Est. 4.32 EPS. Strong read-through for consumer discretionary.
• Macy’s (M): Est. 0.15 EPS. Key for retail sentiment.
• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): Est. 1.37 EPS. Watching margin commentary.
• Capri Holdings (CPRI): Est. -0.13 EPS. Risk of downside on weak luxury spending trends.

After the Close:

• Nvidia (NVDA) takes center stage. Expected EPS is 0.73 on 43.2B revenue (66.2% YoY). Analyst commentary focuses on whether surging AI demand offsets potential revenue headwinds from U.S.-China chip restrictions. Guidance may carry less weight this quarter as investor confidence leans on the medium-term AI infrastructure outlook.

• Salesforce (CRM): Est. 2.55 EPS on 9.7B revenue. Analysts remain bullish despite muted short-term expectations. Commentary on Agentforce AI platform may be pivotal.
• Other reports: Synopsys (SNPS), HP Inc. (HPQ), C3.ai (AI), Veeva Systems (VEEV), and Pure Storage (PSTG) are also on deck.

Key Levels in Play: Index Futures Hold Ground Below Resistance

S&P 500 futures are consolidating below the recent high of 5993.50, holding above the 200-day SMA at 5891.50. A break above 5993.50 could open the door to retest the March high near 6236.50.

Nasdaq 100 futures stalled below 21562.25, with 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 19794.5 and 20786.14 respectively providing trend context. Bulls need a close above the recent peak to resume momentum.

Dow futures remain capped near 42763, with rejection at the 200-day SMA at 43096. Support sits near the 50-day SMA at 41238.6.

All Eyes on Post-Close Prints and Policy Clues to Guide Next Move

Today’s trade hinges on post-close results from Nvidia and Salesforce, along with the Fed minutes release. Expect elevated volatility into the close. Upside catalysts would be a strong NVDA print and dovish Fed tone. Traders should watch for resistance retests across major indexes, with caution warranted ahead of potential tariff-related volatility in July.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.