S&P500 and Nasdaq 100: Tech Stocks Lead Early-Week Rebound on Strengthening Fed Forecast

Stocks Push Higher into Thanksgiving as Rate-Cut Bets Firm Up

U.S. equities strung together a strong, confidence-building week heading into the holiday. By Wednesday’s close, the Dow added 314 points to 47,427, the S&P 500 climbed to 6,812, and the Nasdaq finished at 23,214. All three were on track for their best weekly showing since late June. Traders leaned back into risk as rate-cut odds surged and the big-cap tech trade found fresh fuel.

Did Monday’s Blast Set the Tone for the Whole Week?

Pretty much. Buyers showed up right out of the gate. The S&P ripped 1.55% higher, and the Nasdaq posted its best day since May as mega-cap tech carried the load. Alphabet stole the show — the stock jumped 6.3% after Google rolled out its upgraded Gemini 3 model, pushing shares through the $300 mark and lifting valuation above $3.6 trillion. Traders treated it like a clear sign Alphabet isn’t losing ground in the AI race.

Tesla wasn’t far behind. Shares gained 7% after Melius Research called the EV maker a “must own,” with autonomy once again the hot storyline. And with Fed rate-cut odds flipping sharply higher — pricing jumped to roughly 80% for a December move — the broad market had a tailwind all day. Bottom line: buyers were comfortable adding risk.

Was Tuesday’s Whipsaw Just Chip Volatility — Or Something Bigger?

Mostly chips, but the action said a lot about positioning. Early headlines suggested Meta might lean on Google’s TPUs starting in 2027, and that was enough to knock Nvidia down as much as 7% and send AMD lower by nearly 9%. Alphabet and Broadcom moved the other way, with Alphabet tacking on another 2.7% and Broadcom ripping 11%.

But the real story was the reversal. The Dow swung more than 700 points off the lows and finished up 1.43%. The S&P and Nasdaq snapped back as well. Traders weren’t dumping risk — they were reacting to a headline and then stepping back in once the dust settled. Rate-cut odds ticking up toward 83% certainly helped.

Did Wednesday Confirm the Market Wanted Higher?

It did. Oracle jumped roughly 4% after Deutsche Bank doubled down on its bullish stance, Nvidia bounced more than 1%, and Microsoft added close to 2%. With Thanksgiving week typically favoring the bulls, the tape leaned firm as most institutional desks dialed back activity. As one wealth manager put it, the move felt like a clean snapback from last week’s risk-off stretch.

Where Does This Leave Traders Heading into December?

Strong week or not, November has been tough. All three major indexes are still tracking monthly losses, with valuation concerns taking some air out of the highest-flying tech names. Nvidia is staring at its worst monthly pullback since 2022, down about 15% as the “AI got ahead of itself” debate picks up again.

The swing in Fed expectations remains the big story. Odds of a December cut have jumped from roughly 30% to around 80% in a matter of days, helped by comments from New York Fed President John Williams suggesting the door is open.

Markets are closed Thursday and run an abbreviated session Friday, where thin liquidity could spark some erratic moves — but traders are already looking to December 10 for the next real catalyst.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.