US Dollar Price Forecast: Ukraine-Russia Talks Lift Risk Mood, GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Market Overview

The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped to 99.48 during early European trading, pressured by mixed US economic data, dovish Federal Reserve commentary, and improved geopolitical sentiment.

Durable goods orders rose 0.5% in September, beating expectations of 0.3% but falling short of the upwardly revised 3.0% increase recorded in August, limiting support for the Greenback.

Durable Goods and Jobless Claims Offer Mixed Outlook

According to the US Census Bureau, core durable goods excluding transportation rose 0.6%, while non-defense orders increased just 0.1%, signaling softer momentum after last month’s stronger reading. Labor data provided some balance, with weekly jobless claims falling to 216,000, a seven-month low.

However, the Chicago PMI dropped to 36.3, its weakest level in months, reflecting ongoing pressure in business activity. The mixed data steadied the Dollar but failed to shift expectations for near-term policy easing.

Dovish Fed Commentary Pressures the Dollar

Recent remarks from senior Fed officials reinforced expectations for a potential rate cut at the December 9–10 FOMC meeting. New York Fed President John Williams said policy could be adjusted without undermining inflation progress, while Governor Christopher Waller noted that labor-market softening supports further easing. Former Fed official Stephen Miran added that broader economic weakness argues for more substantial cuts.

Geopolitical Developments Support Risk Appetite

Sentiment improved further as diplomatic progress in Ukraine-Russia talks lifted risk assets. While officials cautioned that an agreement remains distant, renewed dialogue supported investor confidence and reduced safe-haven demand for the Dollar, keeping the DXY under pressure.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index is hovering near 99.48 after pulling back toward its rising trendline, which has guided the broader uptrend since early October. Price is currently testing this support area alongside the 200-EMA at 99.40, making this a key reaction zone.

The RSI sits near 42, showing cooling momentum but no signs of extreme weakness. If buyers defend this trendline, DXY could rebound toward 99.98 and later 100.38, where recent swings have capped advances.

A break below 99.40, however, may expose 99.10 and weaken the short-term structure. For now, the trendline remains the line to watch as price decides its next directional move.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD has pushed higher toward $1.3273 after completing a clear ABCD reversal pattern from the $1.3010–$1.3079 region. Price has broken above the 50-EMA and is now testing the 200-EMA near $1.3280, a zone that has rejected rallies several times over the past month. The RSI is holding above 70, showing strong but stretched bullish momentum.

If buyers sustain pressure above $1.3270, the pair could move toward $1.3368. Failure to clear the 200-EMA may trigger a pullback toward $1.3151 and the retest zone near point D of the pattern.

As long as GBP/USD holds above $1.3214, the short-term structure remains supportive for further upside attempts.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EURUSD is climbing toward $1.1600 after rebounding cleanly from support at $1.1512, with price now pressing against a descending trendline that has capped upside moves since September.

The pair is trading above the 50-EMA and approaching the 200-EMA near $1.1589, signaling improving short-term momentum. RSI sits around 61, showing steady buying interest without overextension.

If EURUSD breaks above the trendline and holds above $1.1650, the structure opens toward $1.1710. Failure to clear resistance may pull the pair back toward $1.1570 and $1.1545. For now, the pair remains constructive as long as it stays above its recent higher low.