Investors await U.S. April inflation figures amid recent upside surprises, making near-term rate cuts unlikely. Predictions suggest slight easing in growth, with headline CPI expected at 3.5%. Though welcomed, persistent concerns remain despite potential softening. Pressure broadened across goods and services in Q1, prompting a cautious Fed stance. Outlook hinges on economic slowdown, with potential rate cuts in December if indicators decline gradually.
The upcoming US inflation figures hold significance for crypto markets. With core PPI and CPI reports expected, their impact on consumer spending and business outlooks will be closely watched, shaping Federal Reserve policy decisions. Amidst stable weekend trading and cautious market sentiment, investors await insights from economic indicators and Federal Reserve speeches, monitoring for potential rate adjustments.
Stock futures are edging up during the pre-market session on Monday after Dow’s stellar week, with investors eyeing upcoming inflation data. Investors are seeking insights from April’s CPI report, anticipating the Fed’s monetary policy stance. Despite recent inflation worries, Powell’s reassurance and strong Q1 earnings are buoying the markets. With 92% of the S&P 500 firms surpassing estimates, sentiment has turned positive. Wednesday’s CPI print is crucial for equities’ stability amidst concerns over the Fed’s rate cut timing.
Treasury yields remain nearly flat early Monday as major players wait for Tuesday’s PPI data and Wednesday’s CPI report. Friday saw higher U.S. Treasury yields as traders absorbed downbeat consumer sentiment data, indicating a significant rise in inflation expectations. Preliminary May reading for the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in at 67.4, below the consensus Dow Jones call for 76. The one-year outlook for inflation rose to 3.5%, jumping 0.3 percentage point from a month ago, hitting the highest level since November 2023. Similarly, the five-year outlook also rose.
Oil prices continued to slide Monday due to weak fuel demand and discouraging comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials, dimming expectations of interest rate cuts. Concerns arise over slowed growth and reduced energy consumption in the largest economy. Despite Middle East conflicts, oil markets refocus on global economic outlook. Gold prices dip as traders book profits before crucial U.S. inflation reports, expected to influence Treasury yields, the U.S. Dollar, Fed policy, and the timing of the first rate cut.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.