As markets gear up for a full week of trading, investors are focused on labor market data, including the eagerly anticipated U.S. payroll report on Friday. Federal Reserve speakers such as Mary Daly and Austan Goolsbee are scheduled, alongside earnings reports from companies like Paychex, Dave & Buster’s, Levi Strauss, and BlackBerry Limited. Additionally, PMI reports on manufacturing and service sectors are expected to provide further insights into economic trends.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, is anticipated to rise from 47.8 to 48.5 in March, signaling potential price increases. Released at 14:00 GMT, it gauges rising or falling prices based on a scale above or below 50. Additionally, US Construction Spending is expected to rebound with a projected increase of 0.7% from a previous -0.2%, reflecting potential growth in the construction sector.
Stock futures showed a slight uptick as the second quarter commenced, with Dow Jones futures up 0.37%, S&P 500 futures up 0.38%, and Nasdaq-100 futures climbing 0.6%. The personal consumption expenditures price index, indicating a 2.8% inflation rise in February, met expectations. This data hints at a gradual inflationary trend, influencing speculation on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Amidst ongoing bullish trends and anticipation of further Fed actions, markets brace for a busy week of economic indicators.
As the second quarter commences, Wall Street celebrates another winning month and quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.1% in March and gained 5.6% in the first quarter. The S&P 500 added 3.1% in March and jumped 10.2% in the quarter, marking its best performance since 2019. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite edged up 1.8% in March and rallied 9.1% in the first quarter, maintaining investor excitement amidst ongoing AI trends and anticipation of Federal Reserve actions.
Gold prices surged to a record high on Monday, reaching $2,258.53 per ounce amidst anticipation of a June interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The softer U.S. inflation data, including a 0.3% rise in the PCE price index, bolstered expectations for rate cuts. Traders are now pricing in a 69% probability of a rate cut in June. Meanwhile, oil prices rose on expectations of tighter supply and positive Chinese manufacturing data, despite thin trading volumes due to Easter Monday holidays.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.