USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Pair Showing Resiliency Ahead of US Q1 GDP

After touching the three-month bottom last day, the Loonie pair was showing some resilient price actions in the early hours. At 04:15 GMT, the pair was already laundering near 1.3134 level, 0.11% up for the day. Notably, the USD Index was also 0.20% up at the same time frame.

The elevated sentiment in the Greenback came following positive updates on US-China trade front ahead of G20 meeting.  Recent reports suggested that Washington and the Beijing have agreed over a tentative truce ahead of Saturday’s meeting. As per the temporary agreement, the US counterpart will halt next round of tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods. However, Trump mentioned that if the parties failed to achieve a proper deal at the G20 meeting, then tariff attacks would continue.

In the meanwhile, the Crude prices had knocked off the $59.90 bbl highest levels yesterday. Somehow, the accumulated gains seemed to fade in the morning. The commodity prices remained slightly declined, hovering near $59 bbl mark. The prices fell ahead of the G20 summit and a meeting of OPEC members to discuss on supply cut extensions.

Key Economic Events

Today, there is hardly any CAD-specific or Crude-specific economic event in the docket. Nevertheless, some significant events are coming up to affect the pair’s daily movements. The most crucial amongst them is the US Q1 GDP figures. The market has kept an in-line hope over this significant economic report, expecting 3.1% this time, same as previous.

Also, in the docket, there is the Jobless Claims data that reveals the Unemployment status quo. On an overall basis, the street analysts stay slightly bearish over this June Unemployment reports.

Meantime, the consensus estimates the QoQ Q1 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices & Core PCE to report in-line with their respective previous figures.

The Housing market data is something which can have a significant impact on the US economy. Today, the MoM May Pending Home Sales will report at around 14:00 GMT. The analysts stay highly bullish over the statistics expecting a 1.0% over last -1.5%.

Technical Analysis

1-Hour Chart

The USD/CAD pair appeared to follow a downtrend since the previous few sessions. The last plunge in the pair had found some healthy support near 1.3107 level. On moving upside, the pair might experience strong resistive forces near 1.3164, 1.3197, and 1.3216 levels. Anyhow, the overall broad trend might remain bearish as the significant 200-day SMA hovered well above the pair. The RSI indicated positive movements today. The indicator jumped from 35 levels to 45.83 levels in the Asian session, revealing keen buyer interest.

4-Hour Chart

On the broader timescale, the pair was trading below the Ichimoku clouds. The overhead hovering base line and conversion line confirms the downtrend. The pair had recently found support near 1.3108 level.