USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – Loonie Attempts Breaching Robust 1.3488 Resistance Levels

API Crude Inventory reported higher number than street expectations which erased the crude’s morning gains. However, tensions over Saudi Oil Supply attacks continue to push the prices upwards.
Nikhil Khandelwal
A pile of one hundred canadian dollar bills

After getting uplifted to 1.3480 levels on May 13, the pair remained in consolidation mode thereafter. Today, the USD/CAD pair was taking rounds near 1.3470 levels at 09:32 GMT.

The Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Futures marked the day’s fresh high near $61.60 per barrel in the early hours. The Oil achieved this 0.74% morning jump as Greenback stabilized amid optimism revolving US-Sino trade talks. However, the prices dropped laterwards reaching near $61.01 per barrel as reports showed increased US Crude stockpiles.

The major reason for today’s USD/CAD pair movement goes to volatility in the crude oil prices. Anyhow, the Middle East supply tensions continued to pressurize the Crude prices. In the last few days, Saudi Oil Supply security got sabotaged two times, invoking red signal for the OPEC-led supply. Traders can expect more volatility in the crude on the attack updates, thereby on the direction of the Loonie.

On the other hand, the US Dollar Index remained higher today on the backdrop of easing trade tensions. The Greenback went up reaching 97.51 levels at 10:03 GMT. The market participants are anticipating the drop in interest rates to occur much earlier than projected by Federal Reserve.

USD/CAD Significant Events

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will release the Canadian April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 12:30 GMT. The Street Analysts stay bearish over these significant figures expect the CPI Core YoY.  The market expects the Core numbers to grow around 0.2% to the previous 1.8%. However, consensus estimate both the MoM CPI and BoC MoM CPI to report 0.3% lesser than their previous records.

US April Retail Sales will get released in the same timeframe of the Canadian CPI numbers. The market expects the Retail Sales to report lower this time as compared to the previous figures. Anyhow, a positive US Industrial Data will come up at around 13:15 GMT.

In a nutshell, majority events are about to release on 12:30 GMT. Loonie traders must put in a closer watch at this pivotal time point.

Technical Analysis

USDCAD 60 Min 15 May 2019

The Loonie was drifting in the lower vicinity and recently changed path moving upwards crossing the Centerline of the Bollinger Bands. This movement calls for a bullish stance on its future actions. Notably, the USD/CAD pair hovered above all the Significant Simple Moving Averages (SMA), alluding an uptrend. The pair had gone outside the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands revealing an overbought condition. The RSI hovered near 61 levels confirming a bullish trend.

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