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USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – Loonie Traders Await BoC Gov Poloz’s Talks

US President Trump calls-off all its Non-emergency Diplomatic Staffs to leave Iran following multiple attacks on Saudi Oil supplies. USD/CAD pair at its weekly low amid Crude price upsurge.
Nikhil Khandelwal
Canadian Money

After dropping 0.50% in the last day’s North American session, the pair had remained consolidated in today’s morning session. However, the pair lost hold of the 1.3440 levels in the later hours amid rising crude prices.

Last day, the EIA had reported huge numbers in Crude Stockpiles computed for the previous week. However, the Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Futures stood apathetic to these figures. The primary focus was on the Oil tensions in the Middle East.

Over the last few days, the Saudi Oil Supply had faced two major attacks. One was on the Oil ships near the UAE border while the other one was a drone attack on a Saudi pipeline. Speculations suggest that these attacks are a part of Iran enrage over US sanctions. Out of elevated fears, US President Trump called-off all its non-emergency diplomatic staffs to leave Iran quickly. These global cues added the tension over Crude supply.

During the Asian trading session, the Crude Oil WTI Futures remained in the top levels of $62 per barrel. Somehow, the Crude found some more space to move further around 40 pips up reaching $62.60 per barrel mark. Following the Oil upsurge, the USD/CAD pair slipped 0.30% landing near 1.3400 levels. Any update on the crude side may uplift the oil prices, thereby adding downward pressure on the Loonie.

Despite the pessimistic sentiment developed around the USD/CAD pair over crude prices, investors continue to stay bullish. There are quite a few bullish expected USD-specific about to get released in the European session. If those events come out as above the expectation, then that could pave the way for the Loonie to escape from the bears.

USD/CAD Influencing Events

On Thursday, the Bank of Canada will release the National Financial System Review. The BOC’s Governor, Stephen Poloz, will answer the media questions. Poloz’s replies need a closer watch as it might significantly impact the Loonie.

Over the US events section, the MoM Housing Starts and Building Permits, April would get showcase during the afternoon session. The consensus estimates the Housing data to come near 1.205 million and the Permit numbers to reach around 1.298 million. Further, the two US Jobless Claims report will get issued and is intended to remain bullish. The analysts anticipate the monthly Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing report to come bullish this time. Laterwards, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will provide the US Natural Gas Storage Change report. The market expects this Storage report to increase and show a bullish effect on the Loonie.


Technical Analysis

USDCAD 240 Min 16 May 2019

The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stood above the Loonie, indicating a bear call. The EMA converged near 1.3460 levels and signaled a significant price drop. The USD/CAD pair crossed the EMA at 1.3459 levels and appeared moving downwards. If the pair anyhow increases in the coming hours, then it might find a resistance point near 1.3504 levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) appeared southwards and below 40 levels. The RSI readings allude a heavy selling among the investors. The pair was seen trading at 1.3405 levels during 09:00 GMT. The overall technical analysis suggests that the pair holds the gate for its downturn reaching near 1.3340 levels.

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