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Nikhil Khandelwal

The loonie had showcased a remarkable performance last day reaching the day’s apex of 1.3400 levels. The elevation got triggered majorly after the release of influential Canadian Retail Sales figures. Moving on, this day, in the Asian session, the USD/CAD appeared to lower reaching near 1.3364 levels amid crude upsurge.

Today morning, the Crude Oil WTI futures went upwards on the backdrop of rising concerns over the Libyan geopolitical tensions. Along with that, a low count of Baker Hughes US oil rugs bestowed the uplifted crude prices. In the meanwhile, Saudi export data also reported lower numbers confirmed the crude bulls.

Notably, the Libyan geopolitical issues worsened after Wednesday when the LNA forces bombed Tripoli using Grad rockets. Libya is one among the crucial global oil producers, pumping more than a million barrel per day. So, these detrimental events occurring in the country will directly impact on the overall crude prices. As a result, the volatility in the crude daily movements will continue until these geopolitical events get resolved peacefully.

At the time of writing this article (10:43 GMT), the loonie traded near 1.3371 levels.

On the release front, there are no Canadian events lined up for the day on account of Good Friday holiday. Nevertheless, US Housing data reports must have a decent impact on the loonie.

Key USD/CAD Impacting Events

12:30 GMT

US Census Bureau will report the March MoM Housing Starts and Housing Permits data. Any positive change in the Housing market data will significantly drive the USD/CAD upwards. So, the good news is that the market expects the Housing Starts figures to come around 68K above the prior 1.291M. However, the street analysts are quite bearish on the Housing Permits figures, expecting a 61K decrease this time.

19:30 GMT

The CTFC will come up with the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) reports, revealing net weekly trading positions on Oil. The last data reported a net traders’ positions of 516.7K.


Technical Analysis

USDCAD 60 Min 19 April 2019

The USD/CAD traded well above most of the significant Simple Moving Averages (SMA), showing strong bullish trends. Notably, the 200-days stood lower to the 100-days SMA confirming the loonie bull call. On the upper side, the robust resistance line of 1.3403 levels awaits the pair. And on the lower side, there remains a good cushion of 1.3278 support levels which is the month’s lowest point attained. The Bollinger Bands (BB) continued shrank showing signs of low volatility in the pair’s movements.

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