USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – US Bulls May Override CAD Bulls Amid Higher Count of Positive-Expected US Reports Uplifting Loonie

This time, the CAD Retails numbers are expected to report positive data to the prior negative numbers. Loonie continued to remain subdued within the range of 1.3282/1.3402 levels since April 1.
Nikhil Khandelwal
Pile of colorful Canadian money

The loonie pair maintained yesterday’s uptrend breaking the strong resistance line near 1.3372 levels. The upward movement observed in the USD/CAD was due to a severe pullback in the crude prices. And, the commodity-linked loonie pair rose as it follows an inverse relationship with the oil rates.

Last day, the EIA had reported a decline in the US Oil inventories which brought down the crude prices. Today, the Crude Oil WTI Futures tumbled 0.68 percent from the day’s high of $63.88 per barrel. In the meanwhile, the OPEC-led supply, US sanctions on Iran & Venezuela continue to pressurize crude prices.

US-Sino trade war will approach complete settlements sooner within this month, elevating the global investor sentiment. Demand-side for crude remains higher from China, keeping up the crude tempo.

Key USD/CAD Events:

12:30 GMT

Canada Events:

  • The Statistics Canada will issue the February MoM Retail Sales and Retail Sales excluding Autos. The analyst expects a positive MoM Retail figure while the sales ex-auto to come at 0.2 percent.

US Events:

The US census bureau will publish the following data for March:

  • Retail Sales Control Group (High Volatile): The analysts expect positive 0.4 percent over the previous figure of negative 0.2 percent.
  • Retail Sales excluding Autos & MoM Retail Sales: The street experts stay bullish over the index.

The US Department of Labor will broadcast the following reports:

  • Initial Jobless Claims: The consensus estimates a hike in the claims to come around 205 thousand than the previous 196 thousand.
  • Continuing Jobless Claims: The analysts expect an increase in the number to reach near 1.720 Million.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia will release the Fed Manufacturing Survey for April.

The analyst expects a 31.7 percent decrease in the previous 13.7 points.

13:45 GMT

The Markit Economics will broadcast the following April Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI):

  • Manufacturing PMI: The consensus estimates the numbers to increase with 0.4 points.
  • Services PMI: The Market expects a downtrend in the Services index to reach near 55.0 points.
  • Composite PMI: The previous data was 54.6 points.

14:30 GMT

The EIA will release the Natural Gas Storage Change since 12 April with prior change as 25 Billion.

Technical Analysis

USDCAD 60 Min 18 April 2019

The USD/CAD was taking rounds near the upper region of the Bollinger Bands (BB) showing some bullish trends. Nevertheless, on the upside, the pair had tried hard to breach the strong 1.3402 resistance thrice this month. On the lower side, the pair remained cushioned near the support line of 1.3282 levels. The significant 100-days and 200-days SMA remained at a higher level than the loonie revealing strong uptrend.

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