USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Recovers After Initial Selloff

USD/JPY Forecast Video for 18.10.23

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The US dollar has initially pulled back a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as we have seen quite a bit of noisy behavior. That being said, the market has turned around to show signs of life, and it looks like we are threatening the ¥150 level. The ¥150 level is an area that of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that a lot of people will be paying close attention to. If we break above there, then the market is likely to go much higher, perhaps reaching the ¥152 level.

If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Tuesday, then the market probably goes looking to the ¥147.80 level. That’s an area that offers quite a bit of support based upon market memory, and a previous resistance barrier. The 50-Day EMA is racing toward there, and it should offer quite a bit of support. Ultimately, I think this is a situation that the buyers will continue to come and pick up “cheap US dollars.”

The interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar, and of course the Japanese yen is going to continue to soften due to the fact that the Bank of Japan has such loose monetary policy. In fact, it’s the only major central bank out there right now that has loose monetary policy. Because of this, the Japanese yen continues to be a currency that most people are not interested in having, and therefore it makes a certain amount of sense that we would see this pair eventually break out.

Anytime it dips, I think of it as offering value and have no interest whatsoever in shorting this market. The shape of the candlestick is also a sign that we are trying to build up enough pressure to go much higher, so given enough time I think that’s exactly what we do. While there were concerns that the Bank of Japan would try to fight the devaluation of the yen, the reality is that it cannot.

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