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U.S. Dollar Retreats As Traders Focus On JOLTs Data: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By:
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Sep 30, 2025, 17:03 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD attempts to settle above the 1.1750 level as traders shrug off the weak Retail Sales report from Germany.
  • USD/CAD is mostly flat despite rising demand for commodity-related currencies.
  • USD/JPY declined below the 148.00 level as Treasury yields pulled back.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

U.S. Dollar Moves Lower As Traders Focus On Shutdown Risks

DXY 300925 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders react to JOLTs Job Openings report and stay focused on the potential shutdown. JOLTs Job Openings increased from 7.208 million in July to 7.227 million in August, compared to analyst forecast of 7.2 million.

U.S. Dollar Index continues its attempts to settle below the 50 MA at 97.76. in case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below this level, it will head towards the support at 97.10 – 97.30.

EUR/USD Tests The 1.1750 Level

EUR/USD 300925 4h Chart

EUR/USD is moving higher despite the disappointing Retail Sales report from Germany. The report indicated that Retail Sales declined by -0.2% month-over-month in August, compared to analyst forecast of +0.5%.

A move above the 50 MA at 1.1747 will push EUR/USD towards the resistance level at 1.1785 – 1.1800.

GBP/USD Tests New Highs

GBP/USD 300925 4h Chart

GBP/USD is moving higher as rebound continues. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

The nearest significant resistance level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3485 – 1.3500 range. If GBP/USD climbs above 1.3500, it will move towards the next resistance at 1.3585 – 1.3600.

USD/CAD Is Stuck Near Resistance At 1.3910 – 1.3925

USD/CAD 300925 4h Chart

USD/CAD is trying to settle back above the resistance at 1.3910 – 1.3925. Other commodity-related currencies are moving higher in today’s trading session.

In case USD/CAD settles above the 1.3925 level, it will head towards the resistance level at 1.4000 – 1.4015.

USD/JPY Retreats Amid Falling Treasury Yields

USD/JPY 300925 4h Chart

USD/JPY is losing ground despite the weak Retail Sales report from Japan. The report indicated that Retail Sales declined by -1.1% year-over-year in August, compared to analyst forecast of +1%. The pullback in Treasury yields served as the key bearish catalyst for USD/JPY in today’s trading session.

A move below the support at 147.50 – 148.00 will push USD/JPY towards the 146.00 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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