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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – August 3, 2015 – Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY dipped 18 points to trade at 123.96 after the release of economics data this morning. Many investors had expected
Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/JPY dipped 18 points to trade at 123.96 after the release of economics data this morning. Many investors had expected the Fed to raise interest rates as early as September, but Wednesday’s statement from the central bank flagged concerns that inflation remains too low.
Consumer inflation in Japan remained little more than zero in June while household spending dropped, challenging the central bank’s effort to spur inflation.
Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 0.1 percent from a year earlier, fractionally better than economists estimated. The same measure for Tokyo showed a 0.1 percent decline.
While BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda is making little progress toward his 2 percent target, the Bank of Japan is highlighting an alternative measure that strips out cheaper oil and shows bigger price gains. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Barclays PLC are among economists estimating a second-quarter contraction that could sap momentum in inflation that Kuroda predicts will pick up later this year.
The government led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe approved a revamped growth strategy in June under which it aims to double the amount of money foreign travelers spend in Japan to ¥4 trillion.
The latest quarterly figure, which the Japan Tourism Agency will officially announce Friday, topped ¥706.6 billion in the January-March period, thereby setting a new record for the sixth consecutive quarter.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
JPY |
Household Spending (MoM) (Jun) |
-3.0% |
-0.5% |
2.4% |
|
||
|
JPY |
Household Spending (YoY) (Jun) |
-2.0% |
1.7% |
4.8% |
|
||
|
JPY |
Jobs/applications ratio (Jun) |
1.19 |
1.20 |
1.19 |
|
||
|
JPY |
National Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
||
|
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) |
-0.1% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
||
|
NZD |
ANZ Business Confidence (Jul) |
-15.3% |
|
-2.3% |
|
||
|
AUD |
PPI (YoY) (Q2) |
1.1% |
|
0.7% |
|
||
|
AUD |
PPI (QoQ) (Q2) |
0.3% |
0.6% |
0.5% |
|
||
|
AUD |
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Jun) |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Monday, August 3, 2015
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
||
|
|
Canada – Civic Holiday |
||||||
|
CNY |
HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jul) |
|
|
48.2 |
|
||
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) |
|
51.5 |
51.5 |
|
||
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI (Jul) |
|
|
51.4 |
|
||
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) |
|
53.5 |
53.5 |
|||
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 04 11:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale (Reserve date)
Aug 04 11:30 UK Auctions 2% 2025 Gilt
Aug 05 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Oct 2020
Aug 05 11:30 Sweden Holds bond auction
Aug 06 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
Aug 06 11:10 France Auctions OATs
Aug 10 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Aug
Aug 11 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt
Aug 12 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Aug 2025 Bund
Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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