Weekly Data for Oil and Gold: Price Review for the Week Ahead

Highlights of the Week: RBA Interest Rate, Canadian, British and Japanese inflation

Tuesday:

• Reserve Bank of Australia Interest rate decision at 04:30 AM GMT is expected to decline from 4.10% to 3.85%. If this is confirmed it would be the second rate cut in 2025 and could potentially create some losses for the Aussie.
• Canadian Inflation rate at 12:30 PM GMT. The anticipation here is for a decline of around 0.7% reaching the figure of 1.6%. In the event of this anticipations becoming reality then the loonie might see some short term losses against its pairs.
• Japanese Balance of trade at 11:50 PM GMT where the expectations are for a decline in the figure from ¥544.1 billion to ¥227.1 billion for the month of April. If the expectations are correct then the yen could face some pressure against the currencies traded against it.

Wednesday

• UK inflation rate at 06:00 AM GMT. The consensus is for an increase from 2.6% to 3.3% in April. If the consensus is correct then it would be a yearly high figure of British inflation and could potentially create some short minor gains for the quid since it could influence the decisions of the Bank of England on their next meeting.

Thursday

• Japanese inflation rate at 23:30 GMT. The expectations for the month of April is that the rate could go up to 3.7% from the previous 3.6%. This might be somewhat bullish news to the market participants trading the yen.

USOIL, Daily

Oil prices held steady on Monday as markets awaited the outcome of Iran-U.S. nuclear talks and key Chinese economic data that could impact commodity demand. Brent crude was at $65.36 and WTI at $62.52 per barrel, with the more active July WTI contract slightly lower. Last week, prices rose over 1% after the U.S. and China paused their trade war, while analysts warned that weak Chinese data could dampen market sentiment.

Chinese industrial production data came out at 6.1% down from the previous reading of 7.7% but higher than the anticipated 5.5%. Uncertainty around the Iran deal, particularly U.S. demands on uranium enrichment, also lent some support to prices.

On the technical side, the price found sufficient resistance in an area of the chart combining the 50-day moving average and the 50% of the daily Fibonacci retracement and has since corrected to the downside. The Stochastic oscillator is in the extreme overbought levels, hinting at a potential continuation of the bearish momentum, and also the moving averages are validating the overall bearish trend as well, therefore supporting the selling narrative.

If the crude oil does continue to lose value then the first area of possible technical support might be found around $60 which is the psychological support of the round number and just above the 23.6% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level.

Gold-dollar, Daily

Gold prices rose following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, triggering a risk-off shift in markets. However, growing investor skepticism is emerging, with 45% now viewing gold as overvalued. Despite safe-haven demand, gold may have peaked for now, as positioning is overcrowded and the outlook remains cautiously bullish long-term, but near-term gains may be limited unless geopolitical tensions escalate further. Treasury rhetoric on tariffs added to uncertainty, supporting gold for the time being..

From a technical point of view, the price of gold has rebounded at a major technical support level on the chart, consisting of the lower band of the Bollinger bands, the 50-day moving average, and the 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, it is testing the resistance of the 50% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level while the Stochastic oscillator is at neutral levels.

The moving averages are confirming the overall bullish trend despite the recent sell-off; therefore, it is possible to see a minor bullish run in the upcoming sessions. If this happens, then the first area of potential resistance might be seen around $3,300, which is the psychological resistance of the round number as well as the 38.2% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level.

This article was submitted by Antreas Themistokleous, an analyst at Exness.