Stocks started the week on a positive note, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.05% on Tuesday after President Trump announced a delay in implementing tariffs on Europe. Today, the S&P 500 is expected to open 0.1% higher. However, I expect the index may move sideways ahead of a highly anticipated earnings report from Nvidia, scheduled for release after today’s market close.
Investor sentiment has improved last week, as reflected in the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which reported that 37.7% of individual investors are bullish, while 36.7% are bearish.
Currently, the S&P 500 is once again testing a critical resistance zone between 5,900 and 6,000, nearing its recent local high around 5,969.
Nasdaq 100: Testing the 21,500 Level Again
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is set to open 0.3% higher, continuing to show relative strength compared to the broader market. The “FANG” stocks have recovered most of their losses from the February highs.
That said, the next major move in tech is likely to hinge on the market’s reaction to Nvidia’s earnings. The stock has rebounded strongly, now trading above $135 after rallying from its April 7 low of $86.62. Key resistance is within the $140–$145 range, with support around $130.
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See all Dow Jones forecastsVIX Drops Below 20
The Volatility Index fell back below the key 20 level yesterday, in line with rising stock prices. This suggests a return of investor confidence.
Historically, a dropping VIX indicates less fear in the market, and rising VIX accompanies stock market downturns. However, the lower the VIX, the higher the probability of the market’s downward reversal. Conversely, the higher the VIX, the higher the probability of the market’s upward reversal.
S&P 500 Futures: Creeping higher
This morning, the S&P 500 futures contract is trading near local highs and approaching the key 5,950 resistance level. I think that this appears to be a short-term consolidation, not a decisive breakout.
In addition to Nvidia earnings, investors are awaiting the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which are set to be released at 2:00 p.m. today.
Support is around the 5,860 level, based on recent lows.
Conclusion
Stocks are set to open slightly higher today, with the S&P 500 index holding above the 5,900 level. While yesterday’s rebound has restored some market optimism, uncertainty remains.
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Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist