WTI Crude Oil Rebounds on Supply Concerns While Natural Gas Eyes Breakout

WTI crude oil (CL) prices rebounded sharply to $63 on Monday as supply concerns intensified. Wildfires in Alberta disrupted about 7% of Canada’s total oil output, prompting operators to evacuate workers and shut production near Fort McMurray. These shutdowns sparked fears of tighter supply, supporting the strong price recovery.

Additional support for oil prices came from a weaker US dollar, which made oil more affordable for foreign buyers. The US dollar slipped on fears that Trump’s renewed tariff threats could hurt global growth and stoke inflation. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions added further risk premiums, with Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia and uncertainty over Iran-US nuclear talks fueling market volatility.

OPEC+ held firm on its plan to increase output by 411,000 bpd in July, a decision already priced in by the market. WTI oil faces strong resistance in the $65 to $66 range, and a break above this level is needed for further upside.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

WTI Oil Daily Chart – Rebound

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows a rebound from strong support near the $55 area. However, prices failed to break above the $66 level, indicating the market remains in a bearish trend. The price trades below the 50- and 200-day SMAs, reinforcing the bearish outlook. A break above $72.50 is required to confirm a shift to an upward trend.

WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Descending Broadening Wedge

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price is trading within a descending broadening wedge pattern. Bullish formations are developing near the bottom of the wedge, indicating potential reversal signs.

However, the trend remains bearish as the price fails near the $67 resistance area. A break above the $70–$71 zone would signal a positive move toward the $73 level. A confirmed break above $73 would shift from a bearish to a bullish trend.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Key Level of $3

The daily chart for natural gas (NG) shows that the price is consolidating above the $3.00 support area. Despite the consolidation, the price remains above the 50- and 200-day SMAs, indicating bullish momentum. Additionally, the RSI is above the midpoint, reinforcing a positive trend. A break above $3.85 would signal further upside toward the $4.50 level.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Constructive Rebound

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows strong consolidation between the $3.00 and $4.70 levels. The price consolidates below the $3.80 area, indicating continued uncertainty. However, the rebound from the $3.00 zone appears strongly bullish. A break above $3.80 would signal a move toward the $4.70 area. Further upside in natural gas prices would require a confirmed break above $4.70.

US Dollar (DXY) Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows that it trades below the 50- and 200-day SMAs, indicating intense bearish pressure. Moreover, the initial formation of the head-and-shoulders pattern suggests the index may continue to decline. The failure to break above the 100.65 resistance level reinforces the downward trend toward the 90 area.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Bearish Pressure

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows that it trades within a descending channel and remains in a strong downward trend. The next major support lies near the channel’s lower boundary, around the 96 area.