XRP faces selling pressure after a pullback over the weekend as focus shifts from the concluded Ripple case to spot XRP ETF applications
Since the resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple case on Friday, August 22, the SEC received a wave of S-1 amendments from ETF issuers. While the filings raised hopes for an imminent approval of XRP-spot ETFs, the SEC may hold off until their October deadlines.
Why the delay in SEC approvals?
The resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple case removed the legal barriers for an XRP-spot ETF approval. Earlier this month, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange stated:
“As we said, a spot XRP ETF cannot be approved by the SEC as long as you are involved in a legal dispute with this exact company and this coin. That’s over now. So, from this point of view, nothing should stand in the way of a Spot XRP ETF now.”
The SEC recently approved the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) and the Grayscale Digital Large Cap ETF (GDLC). Both have exposure to BTC and ETH, and others, including XRP. However, the agency simultaneously issued stay orders, preventing their launches.
The SEC stated that the stay orders were imposed to allow time for the roll out of a standardized crypto ETF framework.
Leading ETF experts believe this framework will expedite the launch of crypto-spot ETFs, potentially leading to a surge in institutional demand for altcoins.
Nate Geraci, President of NovaDius Wealth Management, recently remarked:
“So, if and when that happens, I think you’re going to see the floodgates open. We’re going to see a wave of approvals, and you’re going to see a boatload of new crypto ETFs coming to market.”
Notably, the three major stock exchanges, Cboe, Nasdaq, and NYSE, filed 19b-4s in July. The exchanges requested rule changes to allow for Commodity-Based Trust Shares to list and trade under a standardized framework, aligning with the SEC’s intent to streamline the process.
The approval of the 19b-4s could greenlight XRP-spot ETF launches, potentially triggering a wave of institutional money inflows.
For XRP, the approval of a spot ETF could trigger a breakout and a potential move above its all-time high of $3.6606 (Binance Exchange). However, the prospect of a delay may expose XRP to broader market sentiment until a spot XRP ETF launch.
Is the current pullback likely to worsen as investors take profits? XRP fell 0.68% on Sunday, August 24, following the previous day’s 0.89% loss, closing at $3.0265. The token outperformed the broader market, which declined 1.16% to a total crypto market cap of $3.9 trillion.
In the near-term, XRP’s price outlook hinges on several key catalysts, including:
Potential scenarios:
Global macroeconomic developments and Bitcoin (BTC) price trends will also influence XRP price action.
Explore our full XRP forecast here for key breakout zones and timing insights.
While XRP retreated amid uncertainty about the timing of ETF approvals, Bitcoin (BTC) slid to a session low of $110,306. The so-called flash crash unnerved investors, raising the risk of a third consecutive loss on Monday, August 25.
Market experts attributed the flash crash to one Bitcoin whale selling 24,000 BTC, worth more than $2.7 billion. The whale reportedly still holds 152,874 BTC, raising concerns about more sales.
The sizeable sale coincided with the BTC-spot ETF market’s six-day outflow streak, adversely affecting BTC’s supply-demand balance.
The US BTC-spot ETF market reported total net outflows of $1.179 billion in the week ending August 22, the largest since February 2025. BTC could face a sharper decline if BTC-spot ETF issuers report heavier outflows and whales continue to offload.
Notably, BTC’s Fed Chair Powell-induced rally from Friday, August 22, fizzled out. Initial market euphoria over the Fed Chair hinting at a September rate cut turned to caution. Elevated inflation and a resilient US economy may dampen expectations of aggressive rate cuts to bolster the labor market. A less dovish Fed rate path could weigh on risk assets, including BTC.
Why does the Fed’s rate path affect BTC demand? Lower US interest rates would reduce borrowing costs and weaken the US dollar, raising BTC’s appeal as a store of value.
This week, key US economic data, including consumer confidence, jobless claims, and the Personal Income and Outlays Report, will influence the Fed’s policy stance. An unexpected jump in the US Core PCE Price Index may leave a September rate cut on the table for 2025. A less dovish Fed rate path may pressure BTC. On the other hand, softer inflation could trigger another breakout.
Bitcoin fell 1.17% on Sunday, August 24, following Saturday’s 1.26% loss, closing at $113,334. BTC fell 3.55% in the week ending August 24. This decline came despite a 3.27% rally on August 22 following Fed Chair Powell’s pivot..
Looking ahead, several key events may influence the near-term price trajectory. These include:
Potential scenarios:
Traders should closely track the following key events to determine whether XRP and BTC rebound:
See where analysts expect XRP and BTC to head as legal and political risks evolve.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.