Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions Boost Safe-Haven Demand

Market Overview

Gold held firm in early European trading as investors weighed rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Several Fed officials this week signaled that lower rates remain under consideration, noting softer momentum across business activity and labor markets.

With real yields expected to moderate, demand for non-yielding assets has strengthened. Market attention also sharpened after reports that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is a frontrunner for the Fed Chair position. His policy stance aligns with a more accommodative direction, reinforcing expectations of easing ahead.

The combination of Fed signals and uneven US economic data continues to underpin gold’s appeal as monetary conditions loosen.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Supports Defensive Flows

Persistent geopolitical tensions are sustaining flows into defensive assets, including gold and silver. Negotiators involved in key global discussions have offered conflicting updates, underscoring the lack of a clear resolution.

The uncertainty has kept risk appetite contained, with institutional allocation data showing a recent stabilization in gold ETF holdings after several weeks of outflows.

Silver is moving in tandem, benefiting from the same shift in positioning as investors look for assets resilient to political and market volatility. Analysts note that safe-haven demand strengthens when geopolitical ambiguity intersects with expectations of softer monetary policy.

Dollar Recovery Does Not Alter Broader Trend

A modest rebound in the US dollar limited near-term upside in precious metals but did not alter the broader trajectory. With no major US data scheduled, price action remains driven by sentiment around Fed policy and global risk conditions rather than new macro inputs.

Analysts say the fundamental setup remains intact: slowing pockets of economic activity, rising odds of Fed easing, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Together, these factors support a constructive outlook for both gold and silver as markets position for a potentially more accommodative policy cycle.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold may trade between $4,171–$4,245 as buyers test the recent breakout, while silver holds a bullish bias above $52.70, with upside openings toward $54.42–$55.75 if momentum strengthens.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $4,186 after breaking above the descending trendline that has capped rallies since late October. This breakout comes as price holds firmly above the 50-EMA ($4,125) while staying supported by the broader ascending trendline from early November. The next resistance sits at $4,245, aligned with last week’s swing high.

The RSI at 64 shows improving bullish momentum without reaching extreme levels, supporting the case for continued upside. If buyers maintain control above the trendline, gold could retest $4,245, followed by $4,307. Failure to hold above $4,171 risks a pullback toward $4,090, where both trendline and EMA support converge. For now, the breakout favors a continuation higher.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $54.01, extending its climb after breaking above the $52.70 resistance. The move keeps price firmly above the 50-EMA ($51.85) and well-supported by the broader ascending trendline that has guided the market since late October. Momentum remains positive, with RSI at 69, showing strong buying interest without triggering an overbought signal.

If bulls maintain control, the next resistance to watch is $54.42, followed by $55.75, a level that previously capped upside attempts. Clearing this zone could open the way toward $57.02. On the downside, immediate support rests at $52.70, and deeper pullbacks may retest $51.63. As long as silver holds above these levels, the short-term structure remains constructive.