XRP Price Forecast: Risk of a Drop Below $1 Rise as ETF Inflows Dry Up

XRP (XRP) has retreated by 5% in the past 30 days and seems headed to retest the $1 level — a highly relevant technical and psychological threshold that, if broken, could mark the beginning of the token’s next leg down.

Trading volumes have dropped significantly in the past few days, hitting $580 million on August 1, indicating that interest in this token remains quite weak.

At this level, the amount of XRP exchanging hands accounted for just 0.8% of the asset’s circulating market cap — a dismal figure in the crypto market and one that we are not used to seeing for this top altcoin.

ETF Inflows Almost Turned Negative for the First Time in 4 Months

Net inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to this token also experienced a strong drop in July, retreating for the second month in a row. Investors deposited only $27 million into these vehicles, translating into a 54% decline compared to June’s inflows.

The only reason why net inflows ended in positive territory last month was that investors poured $13 million into these funds at the last minute, between July 30 and 31. Otherwise, the figure would have turned negative for the first time since March this year.

The macroeconomic landscape remains quite unfavorable for altcoins as a hawkish Federal Reserve has depressed the market’s projections for risky assets.

Data from FedWatch indicates that the odds of a rate hike in September stand at 55%. During the last FOMC meeting, three governors disagreed with the committee’s decision to keep rates unchanged, indicating increasing pressure to hike rates in the near term.

This scenario has capped the latest rally we have seen across the crypto market, with the exception of specific projects like Hyperliquid (HYPE), Uniswap (UNI), and Pump.fun (PUMP) — all of which have benefitted from positive project-specific developments.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions persist in the Middle East, while the Coldcard hack has added more fuel to the fire due to its implications for what was seen as the safest alternative to store digital assets to this moment.

Exchange Inflows Indicate Ongoing Distribution Phase — XRP Could Dip to $0.80 if This Happens

Looking at on-chain metrics, we recently warned that inflows to exchanges had increased to their highest level since July 2025, back when XRP’s price peaked. We expected the beginning of a pronounced downtrend for this token if the $1 threshold is broken.

For now, XRP has been steadily declining and has formed a bearish descending triangle pattern that confirms persistent selling pressure in the near term.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 43, indicating that negative momentum has accelerated. If this oscillator dips below 40, that could set off the next leg down, as this is typically interpreted as a sell signal by technical analysts.

If XRP loses the $1 support, the odds of a drop to $0.80 will increase dramatically. Thin volumes set the stage for this decline, as they make it easier for deep-pocketed participants to influence the price through relatively small leveraged bets.

Moreover, as inflows to exchanges indicate, a distribution phase seems to have kicked in. Whales could be preparing to dump the millions of tokens they transferred to exchanges in the past few months as hopes of a recovery vanish.