Forex Daily Recap – Cable Extended a 2-Day Halt at 78.6% Fib Level

The Swiss Franc pair appeared to remain stuck between the 200-day SMA, 50% Fibonacci level, and 50-day SMA throughout the day. As the day approached closing, the Aussie pair bulls seem pleased as they have broken the robust 0.7038 resistance level.
Nikhil Khandelwal


Today, the Cable extended its 2-day intermediate halt at the support confluence made up of the 78.6% Fibonacci benchmark and 1.2561 support mark. All the major SMA stood well above the pair restricting pair’s entry into the upper side. Despite that, the 50-day SMA was heading southwards, approaching the GBP/USD pair. If the last plunge continued to drown the pair, then the support mark near 1.2504 level would have got activated.

GBPUSD 120 Min 04 July 2019

In the meantime, Hardline Brexiter Boris Johnson kept the tension intact, encouraging the bears. Also, the BoE’ Carney’s comments over the monetary policy outlook, earlier the week, confined pair’s further immediate advances. On the other hand, the Greenback remained silent and reluctant near 96.75 level as the US celebrated its Independence Day holiday.


After suffering a significant pullback on July 1, the Euro pair had reached the lower vicinity near 1.1283 level. Since that session, the buyers hardly showed any interest in uplifting the EUR/USD pair. Today, the pair continued to remain within the same 1.1272 and 1.1300 lower range level. Meanwhile, the disappointing Eurozone Retail Sales figures further decreased chances of any positive price actions in the pair. The May YoY Retail data for the Eurozone region appeared 0.3% below the market expectation of around 1.6%. Also, the MoM Retail data missed estimates, reporting a negative 0.3% over positive 0.3% forecasts. During the day, Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of ECB addressed on “Challenges in the digital age”. Chief Economist Lane highlighted that “European productivity has been lackluster for more than two decades.” Also, the France 10-year Bond Yields reported -0.13% over the last 0.14%.


A rebound price action in the Aussie pair after hitting the sturdy 0.7048 resistance mark got supported near 0.7018 handle. Further downside remained limited as the pair confronted a support confluence consisting of a 3-day old ascending trend line and 50-day SMA. An early downtrend got priced in as market witnessed some downbeat Australian Retail data.

AUDUSD 60 Min 04 July 2019

The May MoM Retail Sales figures reported near 0.1% when the market expected the statistics to report near 0.2%. If the AUD/USD pair suffered a pullback taking it below the 50-day, then the strong 200-day would have confined that plunge rally. A significant chunk of the Australian exports gets carried out with China. Hence, positive updates from the US-China trade front also found some influence over the pair’s daily movements. As the day approached closing, the Aussie pair bulls seem pleased as they have broken the robust 0.7038 resistance level.


The Swiss Franc pair appeared to remain stuck between the 200-day SMA, 50% Fibonacci level, and 50-day SMA throughout the day. Until yesterday, the USD/CHF pair had managed smoothly to sustain within a 10-day old ascending trend channel. The US market remained closed on Thursday on account of Independence Day. As a result, there seemed low volatility in the pair’s price actions today.

USDCHF 120 Min 04 July 2019

Any downside movement breaking the aforementioned support confluence would have got bounced back from the 100-day short term SMA stalled at 0.9801 level. Meantime, the Swiss June YoY CPI data reported higher than the market expectations. The actual reports recorded as 0.6% over the consensus estimates of 0.5%. Also, the MoM CPI came around 0.1% above the market forecasts.


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