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Nikhil Khandelwal
JPY Notes


The Ninja had suffered some massive pullbacks on July 18, slipping from 108 level to 107.27 level. From there, the pair had taken up a bouncing price action which allowed the pair to recover the lost gains. Today, the USD/JPY pair was underway the same recovery path. However, the 107.47 support-turned-resistance capped the pair’s daily gains. Quite noticeably, the 50-day had crossed and moved below the medium-term 100-day SMA. This pattern revealed a “Death Cross,” which had dragged the pair to the downside.

USDJPY 60 Min 19 July 2019

The economic docket remained quite supportive though there was only one significant event today. The May Japanese MoM All Industry Activity Index data release shocked the street analysts. The market had expected -0.2% this time. Somehow, the Activity Index recorded 0.3%, around 0.5% lower than the market hopes.


USD Index

The upside of the Greenback remained limited under the sturdy 97.27 resistance. However, the US Dollar Index kept the tempo high, taking intermediate halts near a 1-day ascending slanting support line. The USD Index quite remarkably thrashed all the significant SMAs and kept the bulls entertained. Simultaneously, the RSI indicator appeared to grow from 35 level in the morning to 61 level in the evening. Such a robust growth in the RSI indicator displayed increased interest among the buyer’s community. The most crucial July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came out at around 14:00 GMT. This time, the Index reported 98.4 points over 98.5 points. Despite that, the traders kept pushing the USD Index higher as the Index recorded higher than the previous 98.2 points.  Anyhow, the market stood precautious as the Moving Averages displayed a Death Cross pattern.

US Dollar Index 60 Min 19 July 2019

In the middle of the day, the Greenback gained additional strength out of the fall in the rival currencies viz. Fiber and Cable. The June German MoM Producer Price Index reported -0.4% over -0.2% forecasts. Also, the June UK Public Sector Net Borrowing missed estimates.


At around 07:00 GMT, there was a Death Cross formation in the USD/CAD daily price chart. Because of that, the volatility of the Loonie pair remained in the lower vicinity near 1.3020/40 range level. Quite interestingly, the pair revolted upwards in the early European session, reaching 1.3110 level. This fall came following the drop in the CAD value out of lower-than-expected Retail Sales data. The May MoM Retail Sales reported -0.1% over the market estimate of 0.3%.

USDCAD 60 Min 19 July 2019

Meanwhile, the Crude prices continued to lower as tensions in the Middle East region seemed to worsen. Last day, a US Navy Ship had downed an Iranian drone. Anyhow, the Crude prices appeared to stabilize, trading within $55/$60 bbl range level throughout the day.


The Kiwi pair kept lingering near its 3-month top vicinity on Friday. After marking the opening near 0.6776 level, the pair appeared to showcase minor slips. Anyhow, the downside was well hedged with significant SMAs, acting as firm support levels. The major 200-day SMA stalled near 0.6700 psychological mark kept bestowing the pair’s daily price actions. However, the RSI was lingering near 53 mark, revealing neutral buyer interest. Earlier the day, the June YoY Credit Card Spending reported 6.6%, higher than the consensus estimate of 5.4%. Notably, this Spending figure was only 0.1% lower than the previous 6.7% record.



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