Geopolitics Likely to Take Center Stage with Stats on the Lighter Side

Earlier in the Day:

The economic calendar was particularly light through the Asian session in the earlier hours of this morning.

Economic data was limited to Australia retail sales figures, which had little impact on the Aussie Dollar in the early part of the day.

For the Aussie Dollar

Retail sales increased by 0.1% in May, month-on-month, falling short of a forecasted 0.2% rise. In April retail sales had fallen by 0.1%. According to the ABS,

• There were falls in sales of food retailing (-0.3%), clothing, footwear and personal accessories (-0.2%), and in department stores (-0.4%).
• Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services recorded a 0.7% rise in sales. There were also increases in sales in other retailing (+0.6%) and household retailing (+0.5%).

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.70331 to $0.70418 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.24% to $0.7046.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.16% to $0.6719, while the Japanese Yen was up by 0.07% to ¥107.73 against the U.S Dollar.

A slide in U.S Treasury yields, following negative U.S stats on Wednesday, provided support to the majors in the early part of the day.

In the Asian equity markets, it was green across the board, with the ASX200 up 0.58% at the time of writing. In spite of a rise in the Yen, the Nikkei was up by 0.32%, with the Hang Seng up by 0.28%. The CSI300 trailed the pack, rising by just 0.01%.

Another rise in U.S stocks to new records and the fall in U.S Treasury yields provided support through the session.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar.

Eurozone retail sales figures for May are due out later this morning. While forecasts are EUR positive, an unexpected 0.6% slide in German retail sales could be a drag.

Volumes will be on the lighter side later on in the day, with disappointing stats out of the U.S on Wednesday supporting the EUR early on.

Trump’s tweets of Europe being a currency manipulator was largely brushed aside. It wasn’t the first time and is unlikely to be the last, as Trump continues to attempt to force the FED to cut rates…

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.13% to $1.1293.

For the Pound

There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction for the Pound today.

The lack of stats will leave the leadership race and Brexit chatter in focus.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.11% to $1.2588.

Across the Pond

The U.S markets are closed for Independence Day.

A lack of stats and lighter volumes could leave the Dollar on the defensive through the day. Economic data out of the U.S failed to impress on Wednesday, while stats from elsewhere were skewed to the positive.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.10% to 96.671.

For the Loonie

It’s also a quiet day ahead. With no material stats due out through the day, news from Iran could provide further upside for crude oil prices.

The markets will also begin to look ahead to next week’s BoC monetary policy decision. In spite of better than expected trade figures on Wednesday and GDP numbers released last week, the BoC is unlikely to be getting too hawkish just yet…

The early fall in the greenback failed to deliver the Loonie with any upside, with a pullback in crude oil prices weighing.

The Loonie was flat at C$1.3058, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.