Kazakhstan cenbank expected to continue policy tightening: Reuters poll

ALMATY (Reuters) – Kazakhstan’s central bank looks likely to hike its policy rate by 25-50 basis points on Monday as inflation remains elevated, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

Three of the eight analysts polled by Reuters this week said they expected an increase to 10% – or 25 basis points – from 9.75%, with two analysts forecasting a 50-bps hike and three saying the bank will hold the rate at the Dec. 6 meeting.

At its last policy meeting in October, the bank raised the policy rate by 25 bps.

Annual inflation in the energy-producing Central Asian republic slowed to 8.7% in November from 8.9% a month earlier, but remained well above the target range of 4-6%.

“One must note there is a time lag in the policy rate’s effect on inflation,” said Aibek Burabayev, deputy director of financial markets at ICBC Almaty.

“This might force the regulator to accelerate rate hikes next year. I think they will raise (the rate) to 10.50% in January.”

(Reporting by Mariya Gordeyeva; writing by Olzhas Auyezov; editing by Mark Heinrich)