Natural Gas Price Forecast: Buyers Defend Rising Channel Floor

Support Emerges at Key Levels

Natural gas displayed signs of support near a rising trend line and channel bottom on Friday, dipping to a new corrective low of $2.89 before rebounding. The 50-day average at $3.02 confirmed resistance, matching the day’s high, while prices track for a relatively strong close in the upper third of the range above $2.98. This bounce followed tests of a confluence support zone over recent days, centered on the rising channel’s lower boundary, where buyers got interested.

Confluence Reclaimed on Upside

The support cluster—breached earlier – was reclaimed as prices climbed above the open. Key elements include the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $2.95, a long-term anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (AVWAP) line, and the top quarter line of a large falling trend channel. This recovery highlights a bullish buyer response but doesn’t erase the broader correction’s grip.

Resistance Concerns and Reversal Signals

More telling is the reaction at the 50-day average: today’s range marks the first full session below it since September 26’s reclaim. A drop below today’s low would reinforce this; otherwise, upside reversal potential lingers via a breakout above $3.02 and the 50-day line. Sustained gains above Thursday’s $3.07 high would bolster confidence.

Upside Targets and Channel Dynamics

Initial upside aims at the 20-day average ($3.16), converging with the falling 10-day average ($3.17) and the rising channel’s top centerline. Channel vibrations could propel natural gas toward the top boundary, though the falling channel’s upper line resulted in resistance and a double top.

Timing Note on Confluence

An intersection of two lines at $2.95 arrives Tuesday, potentially signaling timing for resolution or retest.

Outlook and Key Levels

The channel floor hold favors a pause in selling, but 50-day rejection caps enthusiasm. Watch $3.02 for breakout validity or $2.89 for renewed downside. A close above $2.98 strengthens the rebound case, while the $3.16 cluster tests conviction—Tuesday’s line cross adds intrigue to the unfolding setup.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.