Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: $4,379 High Triggers Bearish Reversal

Sellers Interrupt Record Rally

Gold encountered resistance on Friday, spiking to a new record high of $4,379 before sellers seized control. They dictated much of the session, pushing below Thursday’s low of $4,200 and forming a bearish outside day with a bottom at $4,185. A close today below yesterday’s open of $4,209 would transform the one-day pattern into a bearish engulfing pattern, likely landing in the lower third of the day’s range for a relatively weak finish.

Potential Correction Setup

This may signal the onset of a correction, fueled by the recent sharp ascent and growing extension from the 10-day moving average at $4,098. A sustained breach below today’s low points to a test of support at this key dynamic support line. The bearish candle aligns near a predefined target from a rising measured move, matching the rally from May’s swing low to the prior upswing from November’s bottom. Symmetry in these advances often breeds resistance, evident in today’s reversal.

Bounce Resistance and Bearish Shift

Bounces into today’s range should meet eventual resistance, reversing lower amid emerging seller dominance—the most bearish daily action since the rally ignited around August 22. Despite this, gold’s underlying demand stays robust, potentially fostering a consolidation correction near highs above the 10-day line.

Channel Breakouts and Overbought Risks

Recent upside breaches of two rising trend channels underscore strength, offering potential support on pullbacks. The long-term bullish channel’s top line activated last Wednesday, following a smaller channel breakout Monday. The long-term bull trend holds firm, yet the RSI lingers in extreme overbought territory, amplifying speculative acceleration in the rise.

Healthy Adjustment Ahead

A correction would prove beneficial, realigning with a more sustainable ascent rate. Overbought readings and parabolic moves heighten this likelihood, even as breakouts affirm momentum.

Outlook and Key Levels

Bears gain footing short-term, with $4,098 as the litmus test—hold for consolidation, break for deeper retracement. Watch the close for engulfing confirmation; channel lines could cushion falls, but symmetry resistance suggests caution until support is proven.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.