Oil Prices Decline And Then Recover & Prepare To Fall Again

Crude oil continued to gain to trade at 48.48 adding 15 cents in the Asian session, while Brent oil is trading at 48.81 gaining 3 cents in the morning but well below its $50 price just days ago. Oil prices edged up in Asia Thursday, lifted by bargain-hunting following a sharp decline the day before, although analysts said the market remains hobbled by an oversupply of the commodity. A report released Wednesday showing a bigger-than-expected increase in US crude stockpiles has stoked fresh worries about a global glut that has depressed oil prices for more than a year.

 The rebound followed Wednesday´s steep fall after the US Energy Information Administration said the country´s commercial crude-oil inventories jumped by eight million barrels to 476.6 million in the week ending October 16.The increase, which typically indicates weaker demand in the world´s number one economy, was more than double market expectations.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its weekly petroleum status report Wednesday morning. U.S. commercial crude inventories increased by 2.8 million barrels last week, maintaining a total U.S. commercial crude inventory of 482.8 million barrels. The commercial crude inventory remains near levels not seen at this time of year in at least the past 80 years. Total gasoline inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week, according to the EIA, but remain above the upper limit of the five-year average range. Total motor gasoline supplied averaged 9.2 million barrels a day for the past four weeks, up by 2.5% compared with the same period a year ago.

Oil prices took a hit at the start of the week when China said gross domestic product grew in the third quarter at its slowest pace in more than six years. “Worries about the health of the Chinese economy continue to batter commodities prices.

December gasoline futures rose by almost 6% in the past month. However, gasoline prices fell by 30% in the past year due to oversupply concerns. Likewise, crude oil prices fell by 50% over the past year due to the wide gap between the supply and demand. Historically, crude oil prices and gasoline prices mirror each other. Gasoline is the refined form of crude oil. It’s used as fuel for vehicles.

Gasoline stocks fell for the third straight week for the week ending October 23, 2015. The fall in the gasoline inventory benefits gasoline prices and crude oil prices. Gasoline stocks are expected to fall for the week ending October 30, 2015. The flooding of the refinery at the Cedar Bayou facility in Texas will lead to the fall in gasoline production.

Citigroup forecasts that WTI oil prices could hit $32 per barrel due to oversupply concerns. Société Generale forecasts that oil prices could trade around $49.40 per barrel in 2016. The World Bank estimates that crude oil prices could average $52 per barrel in 2015. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that US crude oil prices could average around $50 per barrel in 2015 and $55 per barrel in 2016. Crude oil prices are also trading below the 20-day, 30-day, and 50-day moving averages. These averages suggest that oil prices could trade lower.