3 Eerie XRP Charts to Watch This Holiday Season

XRP’s (XRP) market is starting to show bearish cracks as holiday liquidity thins and volatility risks rise.

A trio of technical and onchain charts is flashing caution signals, hinting that the market may be transitioning from euphoria to distribution, with downside risks building into early 2026.

XRP Double Top Chart: A 50% Price Crash Possible

XRP’s higher-timeframe structure is flashing a classic double-top warning.

After rallying aggressively into the first peak near the $3.30–$3.40 zone, the price failed to sustain momentum, pulled back to horizontal support around $1.90, then rallied again to a marginally higher second top.

That rejection marked clear buyer exhaustion. Since then, XRP has rolled over and is now pressing the neckline support, with momentum indicators like relative strength index (RSI) trending lower and failing to show bullish divergence.

A decisive breakdown below the $1.85–$1.90 base would confirm the double-top pattern, opening the door for a deeper retracement toward the $1.00 region, which is 50% below current prices.

XRP ‘Realized Price’ Chart: A 20% Dip Possible in Q1 2026

XRP has a consistent history of mean reversion toward its realized price following euphoric cycle peaks.

Each major rally since 2017 eventually faded as price moved back toward the network’s aggregate cost basis, reflecting profit-taking and distribution by long-term holders.

With XRP still trading notably above its realized price, downside risk remains elevated, particularly as momentum indicators cool and macro liquidity tightens.

A gradual drift toward the realized price would align with prior post-peak corrections, allowing excess leverage to unwind and resetting the market for a healthier base.

Such moves have historically marked transition phases rather than full trend reversals, but they often involve sharp, sentiment-driven drawdowns.

XRP MVRV Z-Score Chart: There’s More Room to Fall

XRP’s MVRV Z-Score has rolled over sharply from extreme overvaluation levels, mirroring prior cycle tops.

While the metric has cooled meaningfully, it remains well above the historical mean, suggesting holders are still sitting on sizable unrealized gains.

In past cycles, the XRP price continued to fall until the Z-Score compressed closer to neutral territory, implying that further downside may be needed to fully reset market excesses.