3 Key Bitcoin Signals Suggest BTC’s Pullback Is Only Temporary

Bitcoin’s (BTC) 12% retreat from record highs has reignited fears of a deeper downturn, but onchain and technical data suggest otherwise.

Three major signals—unrealized losses, supply accumulation, and moving average patterns—reinforce that Bitcoin’s pullback looks more like a pause in the trend than the start of a prolonged collapse.

Relative Unrealized Loss Shows Most Holders Still in Profit

One of the clearest measures of market stress is Relative Unrealized Loss (RUL), which tracks how much of the supply is currently held at a loss relative to Bitcoin’s total market cap. Today, RUL sits at just 0.5%.

Bear market extremes in the past have seen RUL climb above 30%, as large numbers of investors were forced to hold underwater positions. That kind of pressure often sparks capitulation events, where coins are sold at heavy losses.

By contrast, the present level is negligible. Only a small share of buyers who entered near the recent highs are in the red, while the overwhelming majority of holders remain in profit.

It suggests that Bitcoin’s investor base is far stronger than in past downturns, and that current volatility is stress at the margins, not systemic weakness.

Strong Bitcoin Accumulation Zone at $93K–$110K

Onchain data also reveals a dense cost-basis cluster between $93,000 and $110,000, formed since December 2024.

A cost-basis cluster reflects the price range where a significant amount of Bitcoin last changed hands, effectively showing where investors have their “skin in the game.”

Such zones are crucial because they create psychological and structural support.

Investors who bought in this range are unlikely to sell quickly at a loss, meaning the area can act as a durable floor if tested again. This makes the $93,000–$110,000 range a key battleground for the next phase of Bitcoin’s cycle.

If sell pressure builds, whether from macro shocks, forced liquidations, or broader risk-off sentiment, these levels could still break.

But the persistence of this cluster underscores that buyers have been consistently accumulating BTC, adding weight to the view that the market is consolidating strength rather than unraveling.

Bitcoin’s 100-Day MA Offers a Bullish Hint

History also offers a playbook for the current dip.

In early 2024, Bitcoin fell below its 100-day moving average (MA). At the time, many viewed the move as a breakdown. But instead of collapsing, Bitcoin rebounded sharply, rallying from around $42,000 to over $60,000 within weeks.

In 2025, the same sequence is unfolding. Bitcoin has once again “swept” below its 100-day MA, triggering fear in the short term.

But if history repeats, this could mark another bear trap, flushing out weak hands before a renewed breakout. Analysts such as ‘Merlijn’ already see similarities in the price structure, with upside targets pointing toward $130,000 and beyond.

This recurring pattern suggests the dip is less a signal of weakness and more a reminder of how Bitcoin tends to shake out latecomers before resuming its longer-term uptrend.