Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC ‘Death Cross’ Hints Surprise Rebound To $117K

Bitcoin (BTC) has just flashed a “death cross” on its 4-hour chart, a technical pattern traders typically view as bearish. But if history is any guide, the latest signal could ironically mark the beginning of a local rebound.

BTC Local Bottom in Sight

A death cross occurs when the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) dips below the 200-period SMA. While the crossover is traditionally associated with extended downtrends, Bitcoin’s recent history suggests otherwise.

For instance, a death cross coincided with a -9.82% drop in mid-July. That flush marked the local bottom, paving the way for a 25.49% rally in the following weeks.

Another death cross coincided with a -5.87% shakeout in early August. But instead of continuing lower, BTC reversed course and climbed 11.26%.

The third death cross of this cycle has now formed, with BTC trading near $113,940 at the time of writing. The move follows a correction from August’s swing high near $124,500.

If the fractal repeats, the death cross may once again serve as a contrarian indicator—a trap for late shorts, followed by a squeeze higher.

Adding weight to that view:

• The relative strength index (RSI) hovers near 40, suggesting oversold conditions.

Support around $111,000–$112,000 has held so far, preventing deeper losses.

A reclaim of the 200-SMA near $117,000 would confirm bullish momentum.

Rate Outlook Worries Bitcoin Investors

The death cross alert comes as Bitcoin faces the risk of a deeper correction below the key $100,000 support level, particularly if the Federal Reserve holds off on cutting interest rates at its September meeting.

The threat of sticky inflation has resurfaced after the sharpest spike in wholesale prices in three years, signaling that companies are increasingly passing higher input costs onto consumers.

Several Fed officials have warned that these pressures could keep inflation elevated well into next year. That has reduced rate cut odds from over 90% last week to around 81% as of Thursday, per CME data.

These macro backdrops have coincided with negative flows across US-based Bitcoin ETFs.

As of Wednesday, ETFs had collectively suffered around $500 million in outflows, hinting at a growing de-risking sentiment as the rate outlook turns investors cautious.

Bitcoin to $60K-70K Likely Within a Year

For long-term investors, however, the conversation extends beyond death crosses and Fed policy.

Analyst Killa argues that buying Bitcoin at current levels—just above $110,000—is akin to buying around $50,000 in the last cycle. Short-term rallies may still materialize, but the maximum upside is shrinking.

“After a 700% rally from the bottom, chasing the last 10–25% makes little sense, especially when history shows bear markets erase 50–80% of gains,” the chartist writes, adding:

“That means sub-$100K BTC is almost guaranteed, and a retest of $60K–$70K within a year is increasingly likely.”